Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave.

ABSTRACT: Considerable uncertainty surrounds the timeline of introductions and onsets of local transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) globally^1-7. Although a limited number of SARS-CoV-2 introductions were reported in January and February 2020 (refs.^8,9), the narrowness of the initial testing criteria, combined with a slow growth in testing capacity and porous travel screening¹⁰, left many countries vulnerable to unmitigated, cryptic transmission. Here we use a global metapopulation epidemic model to provide a mechanistic understanding of the early dispersal of infections and the temporal windows of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 and onset of local transmission in Europe and the USA. We find that community transmission of SARS-Co

SUBMITTER: Davis JT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8636257 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature