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Outcomes of Echocardiography-Detected Rheumatic Heart Disease: Validating a Simplified Score in Cohorts From Different Countries.


ABSTRACT: Background The natural history of latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) detected by echocardiography remains unclear. We aimed to assess the accuracy of a simplified score based on the 2012 World Heart Federation criteria in predicting mid-term RHD echocardiography outcomes in children from 4 different countries. Methods and Results Patient-level baseline and follow-up data of children with latent RHD from 4 countries (Australia, n=62; Brazil, n=197; Malawi, n=40; New Zealand, n=94) were combined. A simplified echocardiographic scoring system previously developed from Brazilian and Ugandan cohorts, consisting of 5 point-based variables with respective weights, was applied: mitral valveanterior leaflet thickening (weight=3), excessive leaflet
tip motion (3), regurgitation jet length ≥2 cm (6), aortic valve
focal thickening (4), and any regurgitation (5). Unfavorable outcome was defined as worsening diagnostic category, persistent definite RHD or development/worsening of valve regurgitation/stenosis. The score model was updated using methods for recalibration. 393 patients (314 borderline, 79 definite RHD) with median follow-up of 36 (interquartile range, 25-48) months were included. Median age was 14 (interquartile range, 11-16) years and secondary prophylaxis was prescribed to 16%. The echocardiographic score model applied to this external population showed significant association with unfavorable outcome (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.16; P=0.001). Unfavorable outcome rates in low (≤5 points), intermediate (6-9), and high-risk (≥10) children at 3-year follow-up were 14.3%, 20.8%, and 38.5% respectively (P<0.001). The updated score model showed good performance in predicting unfavorable outcome. Conclusions The echocardiographic score model for predicting RHD outcome was updated and validated for different latent RHD populations. It has potential utility in the clinical and screening setting for risk stratification of latent RHD.

SUBMITTER: Nascimento BR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8649515 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Outcomes of Echocardiography-Detected Rheumatic Heart Disease: Validating a Simplified Score in Cohorts From Different Countries.

Nascimento Bruno R BR   Nunes Maria Carmo P MCP   Lima Emily M EM   Sanyahumbi Amy E AE   Wilson Nigel N   Tilton Elizabeth E   Rémond Marc G W MGW   Maguire Graeme P GP   Ribeiro Antonio Luiz P ALP   Kazembe Peter N PN   Sable Craig C   Beaton Andrea Z AZ  

Journal of the American Heart Association 20210917 18


Background The natural history of latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) detected by echocardiography remains unclear. We aimed to assess the accuracy of a simplified score based on the 2012 World Heart Federation criteria in predicting mid-term RHD echocardiography outcomes in children from 4 different countries. Methods and Results Patient-level baseline and follow-up data of children with latent RHD from 4 countries (Australia, n=62; Brazil, n=197; Malawi, n=40; New Zealand, n=94) were combined  ...[more]

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