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Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: This article proposes a study of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and the efficacy of public policies in Brazil. Using both aggregated (from large Internet companies) and fine-grained (from Departments of Motor Vehicles) mobility data sources, our work sheds light on the effect of mobility on the pandemic situation in the Brazilian territory. Our main contribution is to show how mobility data, particularly fine-grained ones, can offer valuable insights into virus propagation. For this, we propose a modification in the SENUR model to add mobility information, evaluating different data availability scenarios (different information granularities), and finally, we carry out simulations to evaluate possible public policies. In particular, we conduct a case study that shows, through simulations of hypothetical scenarios, that the contagion curve in several Brazilian cities could have been milder if the government had imposed mobility restrictions soon after reporting the first case. Our results also show that if the government had not taken any action and the only safety measure taken was the population's voluntary isolation (out of fear), the time until the contagion peak for the first wave would have been postponed, but its value would more than double.

SUBMITTER: Chagas ETC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8651143 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil.

Chagas Eduarda T C ETC Barros Pedro H PH Cardoso-Pereira Isadora I Ponte Igor V IV Ximenes Pablo P Figueiredo Flávio F Murai Fabricio F Couto da Silva Ana Paula AP Almeida Jussara M JM Loureiro Antonio A F AAF Ramos Heitor S HS

PloS one 20211207 12

This article proposes a study of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and the efficacy of public policies in Brazil. Using both aggregated (from large Internet companies) and fine-grained (from Departments of Motor Vehicles) mobility data sources, our work sheds light on the effect of mobility on the pandemic situation in the Brazilian territory. Our main contribution is to show how mobility data, particularly fine-grained ones, can offer valuable insights into virus propagation. For this, we propose a m ...[more]

PMID: 34874978

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Project description:BackgroundOn January 21, 2020, the World Health Organization reported the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which rapidly evolved to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the virus has also rapidly spread among Latin American, Caribbean, and African countries.ObjectiveThe first aim of this study is to identify new emerging COVID-19 clusters over time and space (from January 21 to mid-May 2020) in Latin American, Caribbean, and African regions, using a prospective space-time scan measurement approach. The second aim is to assess the impact of real-time population mobility patterns between January 21 and May 18, 2020, under the implemented government interventions, measurements, and policy restrictions on COVID-19 spread among those regions and worldwide.MethodsWe created a global COVID-19 database, of 218 countries and territories, merging the World Health Organization daily case reports with other measures such as population density and country income levels for January 21 to May 18, 2020. A score of government policy interventions was created for low, intermediate, high, and very high interventions. The population's mobility patterns at the country level were obtained from Google community mobility reports. The prospective space-time scan statistic method was applied in five time periods between January and May 2020, and a regression mixed model analysis was used.ResultsWe found that COVID-19 emerging clusters within these five periods of time increased from 7 emerging clusters to 28 by mid-May 2020. We also detected various increasing and decreasing relative risk estimates of COVID-19 spread among Latin American, Caribbean, and African countries within the period of analysis. Globally, population mobility to parks and similar leisure areas during at least a minimum of implemented intermediate-level control policies (when compared to low-level control policies) was related to accelerated COVID-19 spread. Results were almost consistent when regional stratified analysis was applied. In addition, worldwide population mobility due to working during high implemented control policies and very high implemented control policies, when compared to low-level control policies, was related to positive COVID-19 spread.ConclusionsThe prospective space-time scan is an approach that low-income and middle-income countries could use to detect emerging clusters in a timely manner and implement specific control policies and interventions to slow down COVID-19 transmission. In addition, real-time population mobility obtained from crowdsourced digital data could be useful for current and future targeted public health and mitigation policies at a global and regional level.

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Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil.

Publications

Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil.

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