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Epidemiological features of COVID-19 patients with prolonged incubation period and its implications for controlling the epidemics in China.


ABSTRACT:

Background

COVID-19 patients with long incubation period were reported in clinical practice and tracing of close contacts, but their epidemiological or clinical features remained vague.

Methods

We analyzed 11,425 COVID-19 cases reported between January-August, 2020 in China. The accelerated failure time model, Logistic and modified Poisson regression models were used to investigate the determinants of prolonged incubation period, as well as their association with clinical severity and transmissibility, respectively.

Result

Among local cases, 268 (10.2%) had a prolonged incubation period of > 14 days, which was more frequently seen among elderly patients, those residing in South China, with disease onset after Level I response measures administration, or being exposed in public places. Patients with prolonged incubation period had lower risk of severe illness (ORadjusted = 0.386, 95% CI: 0.203-0.677). A reduced transmissibility was observed for the primary patients with prolonged incubation period (50.4, 95% CI: 32.3-78.6%) than those with an incubation period of ≤14 days.

Conclusions

The study provides evidence supporting a prolonged incubation period that exceeded 2 weeks in over 10% for COVID-19. Longer monitoring periods than 14 days for quarantine or persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2 should be justified in extreme cases, especially for those elderly.

SUBMITTER: Zhang ZJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8655494 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Epidemiological features of COVID-19 patients with prolonged incubation period and its implications for controlling the epidemics in China.

Zhang Zhi-Jie ZJ   Che Tian-Le TL   Wang Tao T   Zhao Han H   Hong Jie J   Su Qing Q   Zhang Hai-Yang HY   Zhou Shi-Xia SX   Teng Ai-Ying AY   Zhang Yuan-Yuan YY   Yang Yang Y   Fang Li-Qun LQ   Liu Wei W  

BMC public health 20211209 1


<h4>Background</h4>COVID-19 patients with long incubation period were reported in clinical practice and tracing of close contacts, but their epidemiological or clinical features remained vague.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed 11,425 COVID-19 cases reported between January-August, 2020 in China. The accelerated failure time model, Logistic and modified Poisson regression models were used to investigate the determinants of prolonged incubation period, as well as their association with clinical severity  ...[more]

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