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Performance of risk scores for coronary artery disease: a retrospective cohort study of patients with chest pain in urgent primary care.


ABSTRACT:

Objective

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of the Marburg Heart Score (MHS), INTERCHEST, Gencer rule, Bruins Slot rule and compare these with unaided clinical judgement in patients with chest pain in urgent primary care.

Design

Retrospective, cohort study.

Setting

Regional primary care facility responsible for out-of-hours primary care for a quarter-million people in the Netherlands.

Participants

Consecutive patients aged ≥18 years who were evaluated for chest pain.

Main outcome measures

Discriminatory ability (C-statistic), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV/NPV). The reference standard involved a composite endpoint of the occurrence of death, acute coronary syndrome or coronary revascularisation (=major adverse cardiac events; MACE) up to 6 weeks after initial contact.

Results

A total of 664 patients were included, of whom 4.8% (n=32) had a MACE event. C-statistics for MHS, INTERCHEST, Gencer and Bruins Slot rule were: 0.77 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.84), 0.85 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.92), 0.72 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.81) and 0.72 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.81), respectively. Optimal diagnostic accuracy was found for MHS ≥2 (sensitivity=81.3%, specificity=67.1%, PPV=11.1%, NPV=98.6%), INTERCHEST ≥2 (sensitivity=87.5%, specificity=78.8%, PPV=17.3%, NPV=99.1%), Gencer ≥2 (sensitivity=84.4%, specificity=37.8%, PPV=6.4%, NPV=98.0%) and Bruins Slot≥2 (sensitivity=90.6%, specificity=40.8%, PPV=7.2%, NPV=98.9%). Physicians referred 157 patients (23.6%) and missed 6 out of 32 MACEs (sensitivity=81.3%, specificity=79.3%, PPV=16.6%, NPV=98.8%). Using INTERCHEST with a referral threshold of ≥2 points, 4 MACEs would have been missed and 162 patients (24.4%) referred. The other risk scores resulted in far higher referral rates.

Conclusion

While available risk scores have reasonable to good discriminatory properties, they do not outperform unaided clinical judgment for evaluating chest pain in urgent primary care. Only the INTERCHEST score may slightly improve risk stratification.

SUBMITTER: Kleton M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8655518 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Performance of risk scores for coronary artery disease: a retrospective cohort study of patients with chest pain in urgent primary care.

Kleton Michelle M   Manten Amy A   Smits Iris I   Rietveld Remco R   Lucassen Wim A M WAM   Harskamp Ralf E RE  

BMJ open 20211208 12


<h4>Objective</h4>To evaluate the diagnostic performance of the Marburg Heart Score (MHS), INTERCHEST, Gencer rule, Bruins Slot rule and compare these with unaided clinical judgement in patients with chest pain in urgent primary care.<h4>Design</h4>Retrospective, cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Regional primary care facility responsible for out-of-hours primary care for a quarter-million people in the Netherlands.<h4>Participants</h4>Consecutive patients aged ≥18 years who were evaluated for chest  ...[more]

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