Financial stability in response to climate change in a northern temperate economy.

ABSTRACT: Climate change will have considerable impact on the global economy. Estimates of the economic damages due to climate change have focused on the effect of average temperature, but not the effect of other important climate variables. Related research has not explored the sub-annual economic cycles which may be impacted by climate volatility. To address these deficits, we propose a flexible, non-linear framework which includes a wide range of climate variables to estimate changes in GDP and project sub-annual economic cycle adjustments (period, amplitude, trough depth). We find that the inclusion of a more robust set of climate variables improves model performance by over 20%. Importantly, the improved model predicts an increase in GDP rather than a decrease when only temperature is considere

SUBMITTER: Stan K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8660787 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature