Dataset Information

On the interplay of regional mobility, social connectedness and the spread of COVID-19 in Germany.

ABSTRACT: Since the primary mode of respiratory virus transmission is person-to-person interaction, we are required to reconsider physical interaction patterns to mitigate the number of people infected with COVID-19. While research has shown that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) had an evident impact on national mobility patterns, we investigate the relative regional mobility behaviour to assess the effect of human movement on the spread of COVID-19. In particular, we explore the impact of human mobility and social connectivity derived from Facebook activities on the weekly rate of new infections in Germany between 3 March and 22 June 2020. Our results confirm that reduced social activity lowers the infection rate, accounting for regional and temporal patterns. The extent of social distancing, quantified by the percentage of people staying put within a federal administrative district, has an overall negative effect on the incidence of infections. Additionally, our results show spatial infection patterns based on geographical as well as social distances.

SUBMITTER: Fritz C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8662283 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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On the interplay of regional mobility, social connectedness and the spread of COVID-19 in Germany.

Fritz Cornelius C Kauermann Göran G

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) 20211116 1

Since the primary mode of respiratory virus transmission is person-to-person interaction, we are required to reconsider physical interaction patterns to mitigate the number of people infected with COVID-19. While research has shown that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) had an evident impact on national mobility patterns, we investigate the relative regional mobility behaviour to assess the effect of human movement on the spread of COVID-19. In particular, we explore the impact of human mob ...[more]

PMID: 34908652

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 (the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus) pandemic has underscored the need for additional data, tools, and methods that can be used to combat emerging and existing public health concerns. Since March 2020, there has been substantial interest in using social media data to both understand and intervene in the pandemic. Researchers from many disciplines have recently found a relationship between COVID-19 and a new data set from Facebook called the Social Connectedness Index (SCI).ObjectiveBuilding off this work, we seek to use the SCI to examine how social similarity of Missouri counties could explain similarities of COVID-19 cases over time. Additionally, we aim to add to the body of literature on the utility of the SCI by using a novel modeling technique.MethodsIn September 2020, we conducted this cross-sectional study using publicly available data to test the association between the SCI and COVID-19 spread in Missouri using exponential random graph models, which model relational data, and the outcome variable must be binary, representing the presence or absence of a relationship. In our model, this was the presence or absence of a highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectory between two given counties in Missouri. Covariates included each county's total population, percent rurality, and distance between each county pair.ResultsWe found that all covariates were significantly associated with two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories. As the log of a county's total population increased, the odds of two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories increased by 66% (odds ratio [OR] 1.66, 95% CI 1.43-1.92). As the percent of a county classified as rural increased, the odds of two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories increased by 1% (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.01). As the distance (in miles) between two counties increased, the odds of two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories decreased by 43% (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.43-0.77). Lastly, as the log of the SCI between two Missouri counties increased, the odds of those two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories significantly increased by 17% (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.09-1.26).ConclusionsThese results could suggest that two counties with a greater likelihood of sharing Facebook friendships means residents of those counties have a higher likelihood of sharing similar belief systems, in particular as they relate to COVID-19 and public health practices. Another possibility is that the SCI is picking up travel or movement data among county residents. This suggests the SCI is capturing a unique phenomenon relevant to COVID-19 and that it may be worth adding to other COVID-19 models. Additional research is needed to better understand what the SCI is capturing practically and what it means for public health policies and prevention practices.

Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused serious health, economic, and social consequences worldwide. Understanding how infectious diseases spread can help mitigate these impacts. The Theil index, a measure of inequality rooted in information theory, is useful for identifying geographic disproportionality in COVID-19 incidence across regions.ObjectiveThis study focused on capturing the degrees of regional disproportionality in incidence rates of infectious diseases over time. Using the Theil index, we aim to assess regional disproportionality in the spread of COVID-19 and detect epicenters where the number of infected individuals was disproportionately concentrated.MethodsTo quantify the degree of disproportionality in the incidence rates, we applied the Theil index to the publicly available data of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States over a 1100-day period. This index measures relative disproportionality by comparing daily regional case distributions with population proportions, thereby identifying regions where infections are disproportionately concentrated.ResultsOur analysis revealed a dynamic pattern of regional disproportionality in the confirmed cases by monitoring variations in regional contributions to the Theil index as the pandemic progressed. Over time, the index reflected a transition from localized outbreaks to widespread transmission, with high values corresponding to concentrated cases in some regions. We also found that the peaks in the Theil index often preceded surges in confirmed cases, suggesting its potential utility as an early warning signal.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that the Theil index is one of the effective indices for quantifying regional disproportionality in COVID-19 incidence rates. Although the Theil index alone cannot fully capture all aspects of pandemic dynamics, it serves as a valuable tool when used alongside other indicators such as infection and hospitalization rates. This approach allows policy makers to monitor regional disproportionality efficiently, offering insights for early intervention and targeted resource allocation.

Project description:Musical life became disrupted in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many musicians and venues turned to online alternatives, such as livestreaming. In this study, three livestreamed concerts were organized to examine separate, yet interconnected concepts-agency, presence, and social context-to ascertain which components of livestreamed concerts facilitate social connectedness. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling was conducted on 83 complete responses to examine the effects of the manipulations on feelings of social connectedness with the artist and the audience. Results showed that in concert 1, where half of the participants were allowed to vote for the final song to be played, this option did not result in the experience of more agency. Instead, if their preferred song was played (regardless of voting ability) participants experienced greater connectedness to the artist. In concert 2, participants who attended the concert with virtual reality headsets experienced greater feelings of physical presence, as well as greater feelings of connectedness with the artist, than those that viewed a normal YouTube livestream. In concert 3, attendance through Zoom led to greater experience of social presence, but predicted less connectedness with the artist, compared to a normal YouTube livestream. Crucially, a greater negative impact of COVID-19 (e.g., loneliness) predicted feelings of connectedness with the artist, possibly because participants fulfilled their social needs with this parasocial interaction. Examining data from all concerts suggested that physical presence was a predictor of connectedness with both the artist and the audience, while social presence only predicted connectedness with the audience. Correlational analyses revealed that reductions in loneliness and isolation were associated with feelings of shared agency, physical and social presence, and connectedness to the audience. Overall, the findings suggest that in order to reduce feelings of loneliness and increase connectedness, concert organizers and musicians could tune elements of their livestreams to facilitate feelings of physical and social presence.

Dataset Information

On the interplay of regional mobility, social connectedness and the spread of COVID-19 in Germany.

Publications

On the interplay of regional mobility, social connectedness and the spread of COVID-19 in Germany.

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