Long-term impact of HPV vaccination and COVID-19 pandemic on oropharyngeal cancer incidence and burden among men in the USA: A modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence is rising rapidly among men in the United States of America (USA). We aimed to project the impact of maintaining the current HPV vaccination uptake and achieving 80% national (Healthy People) goal on OPC incidence and burden.

Methods

We developed an open-cohort micro-simulation model of OPC natural history among contemporary and future birth cohorts of men, accounting for sexual behaviors, population growth, aging, and herd immunity. We used data from nationally representative databases, cancer registries from all 50 states, large clinical trials, and literature. We evaluated the status quo scenario (the current HPV vaccination uptake remained stable) and alternative scenarios of improvements in uptake rates in adolescents (age

SUBMITTER: Damgacioglu H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8672648 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature