Dataset Information

No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020.

ABSTRACT: Among tool kits to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, school closures are one of the most frequent non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, school closures bring about substantial costs, such as learning loss. To date, studies have not reached a consensus about the effectiveness of these policies at mitigating community transmission, partly because they lack rigorous causal inference. Here we assess the causal effect of school closures in Japan on reducing the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020. By matching each municipality with open schools to a municipality with closed schools that is the most similar in terms of potential confounders, we can estimate how many cases the municipality with open schools would have had if it had closed its schools. We do not find any evidence that school closures in Japan reduced the spread of COVID-19. Our null results suggest that policies on school closures should be reexamined given the potential negative consequences for children and parents.

SUBMITTER: Fukumoto K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8674136 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020.

Fukumoto Kentaro K McClean Charles T CT Nakagawa Kuninori K

Nature medicine 20211027 12

Among tool kits to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, school closures are one of the most frequent non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, school closures bring about substantial costs, such as learning loss. To date, studies have not reached a consensus about the effectiveness of these policies at mitigating community transmission, partly because they lack rigorous causal inference. Here we assess the causal effect of sc ...[more]

PMID: 34707318

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Project description:ImportanceIn-person schooling has been disrupted for most school-aged youth during the COVID-19 pandemic, with low-income, Black, and Hispanic populations most likely to receive fully remote instruction. Disruptions to in-person schooling may have negatively and inequitably affected children's mental health.ObjectiveTo estimate the association between school closures and child mental health outcomes and how it varies across sociodemographic factors.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional population-based survey study included a nationally representative sample of US adults aged 18 to 64 years with at least 1 child in the household. The survey was administered between December 2 and December 21, 2020, via web and telephone in English and Spanish. Participants were recruited from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel, an address-based panel with known probability sampling and coverage of 97% of US households.ExposuresSchooling modality (in person, fully remote, or hybrid), household income, age.Main outcomes and measuresChild mental health difficulties were measured with the parent-report version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, with small, medium, and large effect sizes defined as 1.3-, 3.3-, and 5.2-point differences, respectively.ResultsA total of 2324 adults completed the survey. Overall, 1671 respondents (71.9%) were women, 244 (10.5%) were Black, 372 (16.0%) were Hispanic, and 421 (18.1%) had a high school education or less. Children attending school in-person had higher household incomes (mean difference, $9719; 95% CI, $4327 to $15 111; P < .001) and were more likely to be White compared with those attending remotely (366 of 556 [65.8%] vs 597 of 1340 [44.5%]; P < .001). Older children in remote schooling had more mental health difficulties than those attending in-person schooling (standardized effect size, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.07 to 0.39] per year older; P = .006), corresponding to small effect sizes in favor of in-person schooling for older children and very small effect sizes favoring remote schooling for younger children. Children from families with higher income benefitted more from attending schools in-person compared with their peers from families with lower income (B = -0.20 [95% CI, -0.10 to -0.30] per $10 000-increase in annual income; P < .001), although this advantage was not apparent for children attending hybrid school (B = -0.05 [95% CI, -0.16 to 0.06] per $10 000-increase in annual income; P = .34), and directionally lower but not significantly different for children attending remote school (B = -0.12 [95% CI, -0.04 to -0.20] per $10 000-increase in annual income; P < .001). Learning pods fully buffered the associations of hybrid schooling (d = -0.25; 95% CI, -0.47 to -0.04) but not remote schooling (d = 0.04; 95% CI, -0.10 to 0.18) with negative mental health outcomes.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this study suggest that older and Black and Hispanic children as well as those from families with lower income who attend school remotely may experience greater impairment to mental health than their younger, White, and higher-income counterparts. Ensuring that all students have access to additional educational and mental health resources must be an important public health priority, met with appropriate funding and workforce augmentation, during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dataset Information

No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020.

Publications

No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020.

Similar Datasets

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