Highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory.

ABSTRACT: We develop a site-bond percolation model, called PERCOVID, in order to describe the time evolution of all epidemics propagating through respiratory tract or by skin contacts in human populations. This model is based on a network of social relationships representing interconnected households experiencing governmental non-pharmaceutical interventions. As a very first testing ground, we apply our model to the understanding of the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in France from December 2019 up to December 2021. Our model shows the impact of lockdowns and curfews, as well as the influence of the progressive vaccination campaign in order to keep COVID-19 pandemic under the percolation threshold. We illustrate the role played by social interactions by comparing two typical scenarios with low or

SUBMITTER: Mathiot JF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8692486 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature