Dataset Information

Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044.

ABSTRACT: Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) are the most common malignancies worldwide and are, worryingly, increasing in incidence. However, data in the literature on NMSC specific mortality are scarce, because these tumors are excluded from most mortality registries. The main objective of this study is to analyze NMSC's mortality rates and use them to generate a predictive model for the coming years in Spain. Data on mid-year population and death certificates for the period 1979-2019 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The Nordpred program (Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway) within statistical program R was used to calculate mortality adjusted rates, as well as the mortality projection with an age-period-cohort model. This is the first study to report a prediction about NMSC mortality in the next years. According to our findings, the number of NMSC deaths in older people will grow in both sexes, especially in those older than >85 years old (y.o.). The age-specific mortality rates of NMSC will tend to stabilize or gradually decrease, with the exception of women between 75-79 y.o., who will present a slight increase at the end of the period. Early prevention and screening of NMSC specifically oriented to this population might change this tendency.

SUBMITTER: Sendin-Martin M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8703753 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044.

Sendín-Martin Mercedes M Hernández-Rodríguez Juan Carlos JC Durán-Romero Antonio-José AJ Ortiz-Álvarez Juan J Conejo-Mir Julian J Pereyra-Rodríguez José-Juan JJ

Journal of clinical medicine 20211208 24

Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) are the most common malignancies worldwide and are, worryingly, increasing in incidence. However, data in the literature on NMSC specific mortality are scarce, because these tumors are excluded from most mortality registries. The main objective of this study is to analyze NMSC's mortality rates and use them to generate a predictive model for the coming years in Spain. Data on mid-year population and death certificates for the period 1979-2019 were obtained from t ...[more]

PMID: 34945046

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Project description:Background Oral cavity cancer (OCC) and oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) are two common malignancies whose mortality is worryingly increasing worldwide. However, few studies have estimated the mortality trends for these cancers in the coming years. This study analysed the mortality rates for OCC and OPC observed between 1980 and 2019 to generate a predictive model for the next 25 years in Spain. Methods Mid-year population data and death certificates for the period 1980–2019 were obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. The Nordpred program (Norwegian Cancer Registry, Oslo, Norway) was used to calculate adjusted mortality rates as well as estimated mortality projections with an age-period-cohort model for the period 2020–2044. Results The specific mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants for OCC decreased from 2.36 (1980–1984) to 2.17 (2015–2019) and is expected to decline to 1.68 (2040–2044), particularly in males. For OPC, mortality rates rose from 0.67 (1980–1984) to 1.23 (2015–2019) and are projected to drop to 0.71 (2040–2044). In the group of females > 65 years predictions showed rising mortality rates for both OCC and OPC. The predictive model projects more deaths in females than in males for OCC in the period 2040–2044, while deaths for OPC will decrease in males and gradually increase in females. Conclusions Although OCC mortality rates have been found to decrease in males in the last observed decades, there is still room to improve them in females > 65 years in the future by promoting campaigns against smoking and alcohol consumption. OPC mortality will become a growing health problem. Vaccination campaigns for the prevention of human papillomavirus-associated cancers may have a long-term impact on the mortality of these cancers, which should be evaluated in upcoming studies. Clinical relevance Our findings highlighted the importance of closely monitoring OCC and OPC mortality rates in the coming years by age group and sex, and the need to continue preventive measures against the main known risk factors, such as tobacco, alcohol, and human papillomavirus infection. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12903-022-02487-6.

Project description:BackgroundClimate change poses a significant global health threat and healthcare, including surgery, contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Efforts have been made to promote sustainability in surgery, but the literature on sustainability in plastic surgery remains limited.MethodsA life-cycle analysis was used to assess and quantify the environmental emissions associated with three distinct reconstructive methods utilized in non-melanoma skin cancer surgery: direct closure, split-thickness skin graft, and full-thickness skin graft. Analyses were conducted in March 2023 in Morriston Hospital, Swansea, UK. The carbon footprints for non-melanoma skin cancer surgery in England and Wales were then estimated.ResultsThe mean carbon emissions for non-melanoma skin cancer surgery ranged from 29.82 to 34.31 kgCO₂eq. Theatre energy consumption (4.29-8.76 kgCO₂eq) and consumables (16.87 kgCO₂eq) were significant contributors. Waste produced during non-melanoma skin cancer surgery accounted for 1.31 kgCO₂eq and sterilization of reusable surgical instruments resulted in 1.92 kgCO₂eq of carbon emissions. Meanwhile, transportation, dressings, pharmaceuticals, and laundry accounted for 0.57, 2.65, 1.85, and 0.38 kgCO₂eq respectively. The excision of non-melanoma skin cancer with direct closure (19.29-22.41 kgCO₂eq) resulted in the lowest carbon emissions compared with excision with split-thickness skin graft (43.80-49.06 kgCO₂eq) and full-thickness skin graft (31.58-37.02 kgCO₂eq). In 2021, it was estimated that non-melanoma skin cancer surgery had an annual carbon footprint of 306 775 kgCO₂eq in Wales and 4 402 650 kgCO₂eq in England. It was possible to predict that, by 2035, carbon emissions from non-melanoma skin cancer surgery will account for 388 927 kgCO₂eq in Wales and 5 419 770 kgCO₂eq in England.ConclusionThis study highlights the environmental impact of non-melanoma skin cancer in plastic surgery departments and emphasizes the need for sustainable practices. Collaboration between surgeons and policymakers is essential and further data collection is recommended for better analysis.

Dataset Information

Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044.

Publications

Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044.

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