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A prognostic model (BATAP) with external validation for patients with transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy.

ABSTRACT: Transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA) is a potentially life-threatening complication following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Information on markers for early prognostication remains limited, and no predictive tools for TA-TMA are available. We attempted to develop and validate a prognostic model for TA-TMA. A total of 507 patients who developed TA-TMA following allo-HSCT were retrospectively identified and separated into a derivation cohort and a validation cohort, according to the time of transplantation, to perform external temporal validation. Patient age (odds ratio [OR], 2.371; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.264-4.445), anemia (OR, 2.836; 95% CI, 1.566-5.138), severe thrombocytopenia (OR, 3.871; 95% CI, 2.156-6.950), elevated total bilirubin (OR, 2.716; 95% CI, 1.489-4.955), and proteinuria (OR, 2.289; 95% CI, 1.257-4.168) were identified as independent prognostic factors for the 6-month outcome of TA-TMA. A risk score model termed BATAP (Bilirubin, Age, Thrombocytopenia, Anemia, Proteinuria) was constructed according to the regression coefficients. The validated c-statistic was 0.816 (95%, CI, 0.766-0.867) and 0.756 (95% CI, 0.696-0.817) for the internal and external validation, respectively. Calibration plots indicated that the model-predicted probabilities correlated well with the actual observed frequencies. This predictive model may facilitate the prognostication of TA-TMA and contribute to the early identification of high-risk patients.

SUBMITTER: Zhao P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8714708 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A prognostic model (BATAP) with external validation for patients with transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy.

Zhao Peng P Wu Ye-Jun YJ He Yun Y Chong Shan S Qu Qing-Yuan QY Deng Rui-Xin RX Sun Xiao-Wan XW Huang Qiu-Sha QS Liu Xiao X Zhu Xiao-Lu XL Wang Feng-Rong FR Zhang Yuan-Yuan YY Mo Xiao-Dong XD Han Wei W Wang Jing-Zhi JZ Wang Yu Y Chen Huan H Chen Yu-Hong YH Zhao Xiang-Yu XY Chang Ying-Jun YJ Xu Lan-Ping LP Liu Kai-Yan KY Huang Xiao-Jun XJ Zhang Xiao-Hui XH

Blood advances 20211201 24

Transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA) is a potentially life-threatening complication following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Information on markers for early prognostication remains limited, and no predictive tools for TA-TMA are available. We attempted to develop and validate a prognostic model for TA-TMA. A total of 507 patients who developed TA-TMA following allo-HSCT were retrospectively identified and separated into a derivation cohort a ...[more]

PMID: 34507352

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Project description:Transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA) is an increasingly recognized complication of allogeneic and autologous hematopoietic cellular therapy (HCT), associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Although the central drivers of the disease are thought to be endothelial damage and complement activation, no specific diagnostic biomarkers have been identified. TA-TMA is typically diagnosed using criteria comprised of non-specific clinical and laboratory features. Some patients will have a self-remitting course, but more than half develop multi-organ dysfunction or die, making prognostic biomarkers critical. Prevention of TA-TMA, an approach central to other HCT complications such as graft-versus-host disease, is largely untested in part due to a lack of identified early high-risk biomarkers. We conducted a systematic review to summarize the diagnostic, early risk, and prognostic biomarkers of TA-TMA. We screened the titles and abstracts of 1524 citations. After screening out duplications, we read the abstracts of 979 papers and fully reviewed 132 full-text publications. Thirty-one publications fulfilled the inclusion criteria of more than five patients with TA-TMA and a reported measure of association with diagnosis, prognosis, or risk of later development of the disease. Fourteen studies (45%) were with adults, 12 (39%) were with children <18 years old, three included both children and adults, and two did not report age. There were 53 biomarker or biomarker signature entries, and a total of 27 unique biomarkers. Only four biomarkers reported sensitivity and specificity. The single biomarker with the most robust data was sC5b-9, which conferred diagnostic, prognostic, and risk implications. Studies of combinations of biomarkers were rare. No meta-analyses were performed because of significant heterogeneity between studies. The limitations of studies included small sample size, study designs with a high risk of bias (i.e., case-control), the timing of sample collection, and the selection of controls. Furthermore, only two (6%) studies included a training and validation cohort. Cut-off points are needed to stratify groups, as most biomarkers do not have normal values, or normal values cannot be assumed in the HCT setting. In the future, multi-institutional, collaborative efforts are needed to perform rigorously designed, prospective studies with serially enrolled patients, with samples collected at the time of TA-TMA diagnosis, careful selection of controls, and validation of selected biomarkers and cut-off points in a separate cohort.

Dataset Information

A prognostic model (BATAP) with external validation for patients with transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy.

Publications

A prognostic model (BATAP) with external validation for patients with transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy.

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