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Modeling Early Phases of COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Italy and Its Implication for Outbreak Diffusion.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an intense debate about the hidden factors underlying the dynamics of the outbreak. Several computational models have been proposed to inform effective social and healthcare strategies. Crucially, the predictive validity of these models often depends upon incorporating behavioral and social responses to infection. Among these tools, the analytic framework known as "dynamic causal modeling" (DCM) has been applied to the COVID-19 pandemic, shedding new light on the factors underlying the dynamics of the outbreak. We have applied DCM to data from northern Italian regions, the first areas in Europe to contend with the outbreak, and analyzed the predictive validity of the model and also its suitability in highlighting the hidden factors governing the pandemic diffusion. By taking into account data from the beginning of the pandemic, the model could faithfully predict the dynamics of outbreak diffusion varying from region to region. The DCM appears to be a reliable tool to investigate the mechanisms governing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 to identify the containment and control strategies that could efficiently be used to counteract further waves of infection.

SUBMITTER: Gandolfi D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8716563 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling Early Phases of COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Italy and Its Implication for Outbreak Diffusion.

Gandolfi Daniela D Pagnoni Giuseppe G Filippini Tommaso T Goffi Alessia A Vinceti Marco M D'Angelo Egidio E Mapelli Jonathan J

Frontiers in public health 20211216

The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an intense debate about the hidden factors underlying the dynamics of the outbreak. Several computational models have been proposed to inform effective social and healthcare strategies. Crucially, the predictive validity of these models often depends upon incorporating behavioral and social responses to infection. Among these tools, the analytic framework known as "dynamic causal modeling" (DCM) has been applied to the COVID-19 pandemic, shedding new light on th ...[more]

PMID: 34976909

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Project description:ObjectivesTo assess changes in working patterns and education experienced by radiology residents in Northwest Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsAn online questionnaire was sent to residents of 9 postgraduate schools in Lombardy and Piedmont, investigating demographics, changes in radiological workload, involvement in COVID-19-related activities, research, distance learning, COVID-19 contacts and infection, changes in training profile, and impact on psychological wellbeing. Descriptive and χ2 statistics were used.ResultsAmong 373 residents invited, 300 (80%) participated. Between March and April 2020, 44% (133/300) of respondents dedicated their full time to radiology; 41% (124/300) engaged in COVID-19-related activities, 73% (90/124) of whom working in COVID-19 wards; 40% (121/300) dedicated > 25% of time to distance learning; and 66% (199/300) were more involved in research activities than before the pandemic. Over half of residents (57%, 171/300) had contacts with COVID-19-positive subjects, 5% (14/300) were infected, and 8% (23/300) lost a loved one due to COVID-19. Only 1% (3/300) of residents stated that, given the implications of this pandemic scenario, they would not have chosen radiology as their specialty, whereas 7% (22/300) would change their subspecialty. The most common concerns were spreading the infection to their loved ones (30%, 91/300), and becoming sick (7%, 21/300). Positive changes were also noted, such as being more willing to cooperate with other colleagues (36%, 109/300).ConclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic changed radiology residents' training programmes, with distance learning, engaging in COVID-19-related activities, and a greater involvement in research becoming part of their everyday practice.Key points• Of 300 participants, 44% were fully dedicated to radiological activity and 41% devoted time to COVID-19-related activities, 73% of whom to COVID-19 wards. • Distance learning was substantial for 40% of residents, and 66% were involved in research activities more than before the COVID-19 pandemic. • Over half of residents were exposed to COVID-19 contacts and less than one in twenty was infected.

Project description:Northern Italy has been the first European area affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and related social restrictive measures. We sought to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on PICU admissions in Northern Italy, using data from the Italian Network of Pediatric Intensive Care Units Registry. We included all patients admitted to 4 PICUs from 8-weeks-before to 8-weeks-after February 24th, 2020, and those admitted in the same period in 2019. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) evaluating incidence rate differences between pre- and post-COVID-19 periods in 2020 (IRR-1), as well as between the post-COVID-19-period with the same period in 2019 (IRR-2), were computed using zero-inflated negative binomial or Poisson regression modeling. A total of 1001 admissions were included. The number of PICU admissions significantly decreased during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to pre-COVID-19 and compared to the same period in 2020 (IRR-1 0.63 [95%CI 0.50-0.79]; IRR-2 0.70 [CI 0.57-0.91]). Unplanned and medical admissions significantly decreased (IRR-1 0.60 [CI 0.46-0.70]; IRR-2 0.67 [CI 0.51-0.89]; and IRR-1 0.52, [CI 0.40-0.67]; IRR-2 0.77 [CI 0.58-1.00], respectively). Intra-hospital, planned (potentially delayed by at least 12 h), and surgical admissions did not significantly change. Patients admitted for respiratory failure significantly decreased (IRR-1 0.55 [CI 0.37-0.77]; IRR-2 0.48 [CI 0.33-0.69]).Conclusions: Unplanned and medical PICU admissions significantly decreased during COVID-19 outbreak, especially those for respiratory failure. What is Known: • Northern Italy has been the first European area affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. • Although children are relatively spared from the severe COVID-19 disease, the pediatric care system has been affected by social restrictive measures, with a reported 73-88% reduction in pediatric emergency department admissions. What is New: • Unplanned and medical PICU admissions significantly decreased during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to pre-COVID-19 and to the same period in 2019, especially those for respiratory failure. Further studies are needed to identify associated factors and new prevention strategies.

Dataset Information

Modeling Early Phases of COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Italy and Its Implication for Outbreak Diffusion.

Publications

Modeling Early Phases of COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Italy and Its Implication for Outbreak Diffusion.

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