Modeling Early Phases of COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Italy and Its Implication for Outbreak Diffusion.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an intense debate about the hidden factors underlying the dynamics of the outbreak. Several computational models have been proposed to inform effective social and healthcare strategies. Crucially, the predictive validity of these models often depends upon incorporating behavioral and social responses to infection. Among these tools, the analytic framework known as "dynamic causal modeling" (DCM) has been applied to the COVID-19 pandemic, shedding new light on the factors underlying the dynamics of the outbreak. We have applied DCM to data from northern Italian regions, the first areas in Europe to contend with the outbreak, and analyzed the predictive validity of the model and also its suitability in highlighting the hidden factors governing the pandemic d

SUBMITTER: Gandolfi D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8716563 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature