Dataset Information

Associations Between Eight Earth Observation-Derived Climate Variables and Enteropathogen Infection: An Independent Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Surveillance Studies With Broad Spectrum Nucleic Acid Diagnostics.

ABSTRACT: Diarrheal disease, still a major cause of childhood illness, is caused by numerous, diverse infectious microorganisms, which are differentially sensitive to environmental conditions. Enteropathogen-specific impacts of climate remain underexplored. Results from 15 studies that diagnosed enteropathogens in 64,788 stool samples from 20,760 children in 19 countries were combined. Infection status for 10 common enteropathogens-adenovirus, astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, Campylobacter, ETEC, Shigella, Cryptosporidium and Giardia-was matched by date with hydrometeorological variables from a global Earth observation dataset-precipitation and runoff volume, humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed. Models were fitted for each pathogen, accounting for lags, nonlinearity, confounders, and threshold effects. Different variables showed complex, non-linear associations with infection risk varying in magnitude and direction depending on pathogen species. Rotavirus infection decreased markedly following increasing 7-day average temperatures-a relative risk of 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.85) above 28°C-while ETEC risk increased by almost half, 1.43 (1.36-1.50), in the 20-35°C range. Risk for all pathogens was highest following soil moistures in the upper range. Humidity was associated with increases in bacterial infections and decreases in most viral infections. Several virus species' risk increased following lower-than-average rainfall, while rotavirus and ETEC increased with heavier runoff. Temperature, soil moisture, and humidity are particularly influential parameters across all enteropathogens, likely impacting pathogen survival outside the host. Precipitation and runoff have divergent associations with different enteric viruses. These effects may engender shifts in the relative burden of diarrhea-causing agents as the global climate changes.

SUBMITTER: Colston JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8729196 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Associations Between Eight Earth Observation-Derived Climate Variables and Enteropathogen Infection: An Independent Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Surveillance Studies With Broad Spectrum Nucleic Acid Diagnostics.

Colston Josh M JM Zaitchik Benjamin F BF Badr Hamada S HS Burnett Eleanor E Ali Syed Asad SA Rayamajhi Ajit A Satter Syed M SM Eibach Daniel D Krumkamp Ralf R May Jürgen J Chilengi Roma R Howard Leigh M LM Sow Samba O SO Jahangir Hossain M M Saha Debasish D Imran Nisar M M Zaidi Anita K M AKM Kanungo Suman S Mandomando Inácio I Faruque Abu S G ASG Kotloff Karen L KL Levine Myron M MM Breiman Robert F RF Omore Richard R Page Nicola N Platts-Mills James A JA Ashorn Ulla U Fan Yue-Mei YM Shrestha Prakash Sunder PS Ahmed Tahmeed T Mduma Estomih E Yori Pablo Penatero PP Bhutta Zulfiqar Z Bessong Pascal P Olortegui Maribel P MP Lima Aldo A M AAM Kang Gagandeep G Humphrey Jean J Prendergast Andrew J AJ Ntozini Robert R Okada Kazuhisa K Wongboot Warawan W Gaensbauer James J Melgar Mario T MT Pelkonen Tuula T Freitas Cesar Mavacala CM Kosek Margaret N MN

GeoHealth 20220101 1

Diarrheal disease, still a major cause of childhood illness, is caused by numerous, diverse infectious microorganisms, which are differentially sensitive to environmental conditions. Enteropathogen-specific impacts of climate remain underexplored. Results from 15 studies that diagnosed enteropathogens in 64,788 stool samples from 20,760 children in 19 countries were combined. Infection status for 10 common enteropathogens-adenovirus, astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, <i>Campylobacter< ...[more]

PMID: 35024531

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Project description:BackgroundClimate change threatens to undermine recent progress in reducing global deaths from diarrhoeal disease in children. However, the scarcity of evidence about how individual environmental factors affect transmission of specific pathogens makes prediction of trends under different climate scenarios challenging. We aimed to model associations between daily estimates of a suite of hydrometeorological variables and rotavirus infection status ascertained through community-based surveillance.MethodsFor this analysis of multisite cohort data, rotavirus infection status was ascertained through community-based surveillance of infants in the eight-site MAL-ED cohort study, and matched by date with earth observation estimates of nine hydrometeorological variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System: daily total precipitation volume (mm), daily total surface runoff (mm), surface pressure (mbar), wind speed (m/s), relative humidity (%), soil moisture (%), solar radiation (W/m2), specific humidity (kg/kg), and average daily temperatures (°C). Lag relationships, independent effects, and interactions were characterised by use of modified Poisson models and compared with and without adjustment for seasonality and between-site variation. Final models were created with stepwise selection of main effects and interactions and their validity assessed by excluding each site in turn and calculating Tjur's Coefficients of Determination.FindingsAll nine hydrometeorological variables were significantly associated with rotavirus infection after adjusting for seasonality and between-site variation over multiple consecutive or non-consecutive lags, showing complex, often non-linear associations that differed by symptom status and showed considerable mutual interaction. The final models explained 5·9% to 6·2% of the variability in rotavirus infection in the pooled data and their predictions explained between 0·0% and 14·1% of the variability at individual study sites.InterpretationThese results suggest that the effect of climate on rotavirus transmission was mediated by four independent mechanisms: waterborne dispersal, airborne dispersal, virus survival on soil and surfaces, and host factors. Earth observation data products available at a global scale and at subdaily resolution can be combined with longitudinal surveillance data to test hypotheses about routes and drivers of transmission but showed little potential for making predictions in this setting.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center; Sherrilyn and Ken Fisher Center for Environmental Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine; and NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme.

Dataset Information

Associations Between Eight Earth Observation-Derived Climate Variables and Enteropathogen Infection: An Independent Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Surveillance Studies With Broad Spectrum Nucleic Acid Diagnostics.

Publications

Associations Between Eight Earth Observation-Derived Climate Variables and Enteropathogen Infection: An Independent Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Surveillance Studies With Broad Spectrum Nucleic Acid Diagnostics.

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