Characterizing the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in Italy: lessons from the last decade.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Despite thousands of influenza cases annually recorded by surveillance systems around the globe, estimating the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza is challenging.

Methods

We develop an age-structured mathematical model to influenza transmission to analyze ten consecutive seasons (from 2010 to 2011 to 2019-2020) of influenza epidemiological and virological data reported to the Italian surveillance system.

Results

We estimate that 18.4-29.3% of influenza infections are detected by the surveillance system. Influenza infection attack rate varied between 12.7 and 30.5% and is generally larger for seasons characterized by the circulation of A/H3N2 and/or B types/subtypes. Individuals aged 14 years or less are the most affected age-segment of the populati

SUBMITTER: Trentini F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8734132 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature