Biased Survival Predictions When Appraising Health Technologies in Heterogeneous Populations.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Time-to-event data from clinical trials are routinely extrapolated using parametric models to estimate the cost effectiveness of novel therapies, but how this approach performs in the presence of heterogeneous populations remains unknown.

Methods

We performed a simulation study of seven scenarios with varying exponential distributions modelling treatment and prognostic effects across subgroup and complement populations, with follow-up typical of clinical trials used to appraise the cost effectiveness of therapies by agencies such as the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). We compared established and emerging methods of estimating population life-years (LYs) using parametric models. We also proved analytically that an exponential model fi

SUBMITTER: Gallacher D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8738626 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature