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COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience After Disasters.


ABSTRACT:

Objective

Policy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster.

Methods

We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time course of community functioning before, during, and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all US counties.

Results

The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature.

Conclusions

The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:127-137).

SUBMITTER: Links JM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8743042 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience After Disasters.

Links Jonathan M JM   Schwartz Brian S BS   Lin Sen S   Kanarek Norma N   Mitrani-Reiser Judith J   Sell Tara Kirk TK   Watson Crystal R CR   Ward Doug D   Slemp Cathy C   Burhans Robert R   Gill Kimberly K   Igusa Tak T   Zhao Xilei X   Aguirre Benigno B   Trainor Joseph J   Nigg Joanne J   Inglesby Thomas T   Carbone Eric E   Kendra James M JM  

Disaster medicine and public health preparedness 20170621 1


<h4>Objective</h4>Policy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a system dynamics computational model that p  ...[more]

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