Estimating the Impact of Low Influenza Activity in 2020 on Population Immunity and Future Influenza Seasons in the United States.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Influenza activity in the 2020-2021 season was remarkably low, likely due to implementation of public health preventive measures such as social distancing, mask wearing, and school closure. With waning immunity, the impact of low influenza activity in the 2020-2021 season on the following season is unknown.

Methods

We built a multistrain compartmental model that captures immunity over multiple influenza seasons in the United States. Compared with the counterfactual case, where influenza activity remained at the normal level in 2020-2021, we estimated the change in the number of hospitalizations when the transmission rate was decreased by 20% in 2020-2021. We varied the level of vaccine uptake and effectiveness in 2021-2022. We measured the change in population imm

SUBMITTER: Lee K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8743127 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature