Dataset Information

Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns.

ABSTRACT: The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and projected future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all countries in eastern and central Africa and a large part of western Africa under the current climate. Climatic barriers, such as heat and dry stresses, may limit the spread of FAW to North and South Africa. Future projections suggest that FAW invasive range will retract from both northern and southern regions towards the equator. However, a large area in eastern and central Africa is projected to have an optimal climate for FAW persistence. These areas will serve as FAW 'hotspots' from where it may migrate to the north and south during favorable seasons and then pose an economic threat. Our projections can be used to identify countries at risk for permanent and transient FAW-population establishment and inform timely integrated pest management interventions under present and future climate in Africa.

SUBMITTER: Paudel Timilsena B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8752590 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns.

Paudel Timilsena Bipana B Niassy Saliou S Kimathi Emily E Abdel-Rahman Elfatih M EM Seidl-Adams Irmgard I Wamalwa Mark M Tonnang Henri E Z HEZ Ekesi Sunday S Hughes David P DP Rajotte Edwin G EG Subramanian Sevgan S

Scientific reports 20220111 1

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and projected future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all cou ...[more]

PMID: 35017586

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Project description:The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith, has caused massive maize losses since its attack on the African continent in 2016, particularly in east Africa. In this study, we predicted the spatial distribution (established habitat) of FAW in five east African countries viz., Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, and Ethiopia. We used FAW occurrence observations for three years i.e., 2018, 2019, and 2020, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, and bioclimatic, land surface temperature (LST), solar radiation, wind speed, elevation, and landscape structure data (i.e., land use and land cover and maize harvested area) as explanatory variables. The explanatory variables were used as inputs into a variable selection experiment to select the least correlated ones that were then used to predict FAW establishment, i.e., suitability areas (very low suitability - very high suitability). The shared socio-economic pathways, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2030 and 2050 were used to predict the effect of future climate scenarios on FAW establishment. The results demonstrated that FAW establishment areas in eastern Africa were based on the model strength and true performance (area under the curve: AUC = 0.87), but not randomly. Moreover, ∼27% of eastern Africa is currently at risk of FAW establishment. Predicted FAW risk areas are expected to increase to ∼29% (using each of the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios) in the year 2030, and to ∼38% (using SSP2-4.5) and ∼35% (using SSP5-8.5) in the year 2050 climate scenarios. The LULC, particularly croplands and maize harvested area, together with temperature and precipitation bioclimatic variables provided the highest permutation importance in determining the occurrence and establishment of the pest in eastern Africa. Specifically, the study revealed that FAW was sensitive to isothermality (Bio3) rather than being sensitive to a single temperature value in the year. FAW preference ranges of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and maize harvested area were observed, implying the establishment of a once exotic pest in critical maize production regions in eastern Africa. It is recommended that future studies should thus embed the present study's modeling results into a dynamic platform that provides near-real-time predictions of FAW spatial occurrence and risk at the farm scale.

Project description:Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) has rapidly spread in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and has emerged as a major pest of maize and sorghum in the continent. For effective monitoring and a better understanding of the bioecology and management of this pest, a Community-based Fall Armyworm Monitoring, Forecasting, Early Warning and Management (CBFAMFEW) initiative was implemented in six eastern African countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi). Over 650 Community Focal Persons (CFPs) who received training through the project were involved in data collection on adult moths, crop phenology, cropping systems, FAW management practices and other variables. Data collection was performed using Fall Armyworm Monitoring and Early Warning System (FAMEWS), a mobile application developed by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Data collected from the CBFAMFEW initiative in East Africa and other FAW monitoring efforts in Africa were merged and analysed to determine the factors that are related to FAW population dynamics. We used the negative binomial models to test for effect of main crops type, cropping systems and crop phenology on abundance of FAW. We also analysed the effect of rainfall and the spatial and temporal distribution of FAW populations. The study showed variability across the region in terms of the proportion of main crops, cropping systems, diversity of crops used in rotation, and control methods that impact on trap and larval counts. Intercropping and crop rotation had incident rate 2-times and 3-times higher relative to seasonal cropping, respectively. The abundance of FAW adult and larval infestation significantly varied with crop phenology, with infestation being high at the vegetative and reproductive stages of the crop, and low at maturity stage. This study provides an understanding on FAW bioecology, which could be vital in guiding the deployment of FAW-IPM tools in specific locations and at a specific crop developmental stage. The outcomes demonstrate the relevance of community-based crop pest monitoring for awareness creation among smallholder farmers in SSA.

Project description:Invasive species pose a significant threat to biodiversity and agriculture world-wide. Natural enemies play an important part in controlling pest populations, yet we understand very little about the presence and prevalence of natural enemies during the early invasion stages. Microbial natural enemies of fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda are known in its native region, however, they have not yet been identified in Africa where fall armyworm has been an invasive crop pest since 2016. Larval samples were screened from Malawi, Rwanda, Kenya, Zambia, Sudan and Ghana for the presence of four different microbial natural enemies; two nucleopolyhedroviruses, Spodoptera frugiperda NPV (SfMNPV) and Spodoptera exempta NPV (SpexNPV); the fungal pathogen Metarhizium rileyi; and the bacterium Wolbachia. This study aimed to identify which microbial pathogens are present in invasive fall armyworm, and determine the geographical, meteorological and temporal variables that influence prevalence. Within 3 years of arrival, fall armyworm was exposed to all four microbial natural enemies. SfMNPV probably arrived with fall armyworm from the Americas, but this is the first putative evidence of host spillover from Spodoptera exempta (African armyworm) to fall armyworm for the endemic pathogen SpexNPV and for Wolbachia. It is also the first confirmed incidence of M. rileyi infecting fall armyworm in Africa. Natural enemies were localised, with variation being observed both nationally and temporally. The prevalence of SfMNPV (the most common natural enemy) was predominantly explained by variables associated with the weather; declining with increasing rainfall and increasing with temperature. However, virus prevalence also increased as the growing season progressed. The infection of an invasive species with a natural enemy from its native range and novel pathogens specific to its new range has important consequences for understanding the population ecology of invasive species and insect-pathogen interactions. Additionally, while it is widely known that temporal and geographic factors affect insect populations, this study reveals that these are important in understanding the distribution of microbial natural enemies associated with invasive pests during the early stages of invasion, and provide baseline data for future studies.

Project description:In the Americas, the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) exists in two genetically distinct strains, the corn (C) and rice (R) strains. Despite their names, these strains are not associated with host plant preferences but have been shown to vary in pheromone composition and male responses. Recently, S. frugiperda was detected in Africa as an invasive species, but knowledge about variation in strain types, pheromone composition and inter-strain mating of populations of the pest in the continent has not been fully examined. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate variations, if any in the pheromone composition of female moths, male moth responses, and mating between C and R mitotypes of S. frugiperda populations in Kenya, as well as their geographic distribution. Strains (mitotypes) of S. frugiperda were identified using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers, and their pheromonal composition determined by coupled gas chromatography-mass spectrometric (GC-MS) analysis. Male moth responses to these compounds were evaluated using GC-electroantennographic detection (EAD), electroantennogram (EAG), and wind tunnel assays. Oviposition assays were used to determine whether R and C mitotype moths could mate and produce eggs. The results showed that both the R and C mitotypes were present, and there were no statistically significant differences in their distribution across all sampled locations. Five pheromone compounds including (Z)-7-dodecenyl acetate (Z7-12:OAc), (Z)-7-tetradecenyl acetate (Z7-14:OAc), (Z)-9-tetradecenyl acetate (Z9-14:OAc), (Z)-11-tetradecenyl acetate (Z11-14:OAc) and (Z)-11-hexadecenyl acetate (Z11-16:OAc), were detected in the pheromone glands of female moths of both mitotypes, with Z9-14:OAc being the most abundant. The relative percentage composition of Z9-14:OAc was similar in both mitotypes. However, the R mitotype had a 2.7 times higher relative percentage composition of Z7-12:OAc compared to the C mitotype moth, while the C mitotype moth had a 2.4 times higher relative percentage composition of Z11-16:OAc than the R mitotype moth. Male moths of both mitotypes exhibited similar responses to the pheromone compounds, showing the strongest responses to Z9-14:OAc and Z7-12:OAc in electrophysiological and behavioural assays. There was mating between R and C mitotypes with egg production comparable to mating within the same mitotype. Our results revealed that differences between the two S. frugiperda mitotypes are characterized by female moth pheromone composition rather than male moth responses to the pheromones, and that this does not prevent hybridisation between the mitotypes, which may have implications for their management.

Dataset Information

Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns.

Publications

Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns.

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