Estimating COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Following the US Vaccination Campaigns During the Pandemic.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Vilches TN
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8753510 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Estimating COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Following the US Vaccination Campaigns During the Pandemic.
Vilches Thomas N TN Moghadas Seyed M SM Sah Pratha P Fitzpatrick Meagan C MC Shoukat Affan A Pandey Abhishek A Galvani Alison P AP
JAMA network open 20220104 1
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Project description:BackgroundIran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.MethodsWe developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsUnder scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800).ConclusionWith no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.
| S-EPMC9278464 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundData suggest that the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ among U.S. racial/ethnic groups.PurposeTo evaluate racial/ethnic disparities in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection rates and COVID-19 outcomes, factors contributing to disparities, and interventions to reduce them.Data sourcesEnglish-language articles in MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus, searched from inception through 31 August 2020. Gray literature sources were searched through 2 November 2020.Study selectionObservational studies examining SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations, or deaths by race/ethnicity in U.S. settings.Data extractionSingle-reviewer abstraction confirmed by a second reviewer; independent dual-reviewer assessment of quality and strength of evidence.Data synthesis37 mostly fair-quality cohort and cross-sectional studies, 15 mostly good-quality ecological studies, and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and APM Research Lab were included. African American/Black and Hispanic populations experience disproportionately higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and COVID-19-related mortality compared with non-Hispanic White populations, but not higher case-fatality rates (mostly reported as in-hospital mortality) (moderate- to high-strength evidence). Asian populations experience similar outcomes to non-Hispanic White populations (low-strength evidence). Outcomes for other racial/ethnic groups have been insufficiently studied. Health care access and exposure factors may underlie the observed disparities more than susceptibility due to comorbid conditions (low-strength evidence).LimitationsSelection bias, missing race/ethnicity data, and incomplete outcome assessments in cohort and cross-sectional studies must be considered. In addition, adjustment for key demographic covariates was lacking in ecological studies.ConclusionAfrican American/Black and Hispanic populations experience disproportionately higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related mortality but similar rates of case fatality. Differences in health care access and exposure risk may be driving higher infection and mortality rates.Primary funding sourceDepartment of Veterans Affairs, Veterans Health Administration, Health Services Research & Development. (PROSPERO: CRD42020187078).
| S-EPMC7772883 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated significant efficacy in reducing severe symptoms and fatalities, although their effectiveness in preventing transmission varies depending on the population's age profile and the dominant variant. This study evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the Basque Country region of Spain, which has the fourth highest proportion of elderly individuals worldwide. Using epidemiological data on hospitalizations, ICU admissions, fatalities, and vaccination coverage, we calibrated four versions of an ordinary differential equations model with varying assumptions on the age structure and transmission function. Counterfactual no-vaccine scenarios were simulated by setting the vaccination rate to zero while all other parameters were held constant. The initial vaccination rollout is estimated to have prevented 46,000 to 75,000 hospitalizations, 6,000 to 11,000 ICU admissions, and 15,000 to 24,000 deaths, reducing these outcomes by 73-86%. The most significant impact occurred during the third quarter of 2021, coinciding with the Delta variant's dominance and a vaccination rate exceeding 60%. Sensitivity analysis revealed that vaccination coverage had a more substantial effect on averted outcomes than vaccine efficacy. Overall, the vaccination campaign in the Basque Country significantly reduced severe COVID-19 outcomes, aligning with global estimates and demonstrating robustness across different modeling approaches.
| S-EPMC11442822 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceVaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The relative importance of vaccination strategies and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is not well understood.ObjectiveTo assess the association of simulated COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage scenarios with and without NPIs with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.Design, setting, and participantsAn established agent-based decision analytical model was used to simulate COVID-19 transmission and progression from March 24, 2020, to September 23, 2021. The model simulated COVID-19 spread in North Carolina, a US state of 10.5 million people. A network of 1 017 720 agents was constructed from US Census data to represent the statewide population.ExposuresScenarios of vaccine efficacy (50% and 90%), vaccine coverage (25%, 50%, and 75% at the end of a 6-month distribution period), and NPIs (reduced mobility, school closings, and use of face masks) maintained and removed during vaccine distribution.Main outcomes and measuresRisks of infection from the start of vaccine distribution and risk differences comparing scenarios. Outcome means and SDs were calculated across replications.ResultsIn the worst-case vaccination scenario (50% efficacy, 25% coverage), a mean (SD) of 2 231 134 (117 867) new infections occurred after vaccination began with NPIs removed, and a mean (SD) of 799 949 (60 279) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained during 11 months. In contrast, in the best-case scenario (90% efficacy, 75% coverage), a mean (SD) of 527 409 (40 637) new infections occurred with NPIs removed and a mean (SD) of 450 575 (32 716) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained. With NPIs removed, lower efficacy (50%) and higher coverage (75%) reduced infection risk by a greater magnitude than higher efficacy (90%) and lower coverage (25%) compared with the worst-case scenario (mean [SD] absolute risk reduction, 13% [1%] and 8% [1%], respectively).Conclusions and relevanceSimulation outcomes suggest that removing NPIs while vaccines are distributed may result in substantial increases in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Furthermore, as NPIs are removed, higher vaccination coverage with less efficacious vaccines can contribute to a larger reduction in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with more efficacious vaccines at lower coverage. These findings highlight the need for well-resourced and coordinated efforts to achieve high vaccine coverage and continued adherence to NPIs before many prepandemic activities can be resumed.
| S-EPMC8170542 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We assessed the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy, by estimating numbers of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths between January and September 2021, by age group and geographical macro areas. Timing and speed of vaccination programme implementation varied slightly between geographical areas, particularly for older adults. We estimated that 445,193 (17% of expected; range: 331,059-616,054) cases, 79,152 (32%; range: 53,209-148,756) hospitalisations, 9,839 ICU admissions (29%; range: 6,434-16,276) and 22,067 (38%; range: 13,571-48,026) deaths were prevented by vaccination.
| S-EPMC8619872 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the pivotal role of vaccines in mitigating the devastating impact of the virus. In Thailand, the vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 began on 28 February 2021, initially prioritizing healthcare professionals before expanding into a nationwide effort on 7 June 2021. This study employs a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission with vaccination to analyze the impact of Thailand's COVID-19 vaccination program from 1 March 2021 to 31 December 2022. We specifically assess the potential loss of lives and occurrence of severe infections across various age groups in a hypothetical scenario where vaccines were not administered. By fitting our model with officially reported COVID-19 death data, our analysis reveals that vaccination efforts prevented a total of 300,234 deaths (95% confidence interval: 295,938-304,349) and averted 1.60 million severe COVID-19 infections (95% confidence interval: 1.54-1.65 million). Notably, the elderly population over 80 years old benefited the most from vaccination, with an estimated 84,518 lives saved, constituting 4.28% of this age group. Furthermore, individuals aged between 70 and 74 years experienced the highest reduction in severe infections, with vaccination potentially preventing 8.35% of this age bracket from developing severe COVID-19.
| S-EPMC11679040 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil has brought many challenges, particularly regarding the management of hospital capacity, and a new demand for healthcare that added to the preexisting demands, such as neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases and births. In this paper, we estimate the impact of the pandemic on the number of deaths and hospitalizations for other diseases. We construct a monthly panel data of deaths and hospitalizations for various causes by the municipality of residence and relate them to COVID-19 hospitalizations using regression models that control for municipalities fixed-effects and interactions between State and month fixed-effects. The standard errors are clustered at the municipality level. Our estimates imply that 100 more hospitalizations by COVID-19 is associated with a drop of 49 non-COVID-19 hospitalizations and an additional four deaths for other reasons (all measured per 100,000 pop.). The impact of intensive care units COVID-19 hospitalizations on mortality is larger. The groups most affected are the African Brazilians, less-educated and the elderly. Additional deaths occurred both at households and at hospitals. The main causes of additional deaths were diseases related to the circulatory and endocrine system. The decline in hospitalizations for other causes seems to be related to the overcrowding of hospitals in periods of surge in the COVID-19, alongside with the fall in the demand for care by the citizens who were afraid of COVID-19 infection. These mechanisms affected more strongly the vulnerable groups of the population. Our results highlight the importance of promoting the awareness of heightened risk of non-communicable chronic diseases during a health emergency context. This should be done preferably through already established channels with community outreach, such as the Family Health Program in Brazil.
| S-EPMC10721066 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe fourth wave of COVID-19 pandemic peaked in the US at 160,000 daily cases, concentrated primarily in southern states. As the Delta variant has continued to spread, we evaluated the impact of accelerated vaccination on reducing hospitalization and deaths across northeastern and southern regions of the US census divisions.MethodsWe used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to simulate outbreaks in all states within two U.S. regions. The model was calibrated using reported incidence in each state from October 1, 2020 to August 31, 2021, and parameterized with characteristics of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and state-specific daily vaccination rate. We then projected the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths that would be averted between September 2021 and the end of March 2022 if the states increased their daily vaccination rate by 20 or 50% compared to maintaining the status quo pace observed during August 2021.FindingsA 50% increase in daily vaccine doses administered to previously unvaccinated individuals is projected to prevent a total of 30,727 hospitalizations and 11,937 deaths in the two regions between September 2021 and the end of March 2022. Southern states were projected to have a higher weighted average number of hospitalizations averted (18.8) and lives saved (8.3) per 100,000 population, compared to the weighted average of hospitalizations (12.4) and deaths (2.7) averted in northeastern states. On a per capita basis, a 50% increase in daily vaccinations is expected to avert the most hospitalizations in Kentucky (56.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 averted with 95% CrI: 45.56 - 69.9) and prevent the most deaths in Mississippi, (22.1 deaths per 100,000 population prevented with 95% CrI: 18.0 - 26.9).InterpretationAccelerating progress to population-level immunity by raising the daily pace of vaccination would prevent substantial hospitalizations and deaths in the US, even in those states that have passed a Delta-driven peak in infections.FundingThis study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund. SMM acknowledges the support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research [OV4 - 170643, COVID-19 Rapid Research] and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling, MfPH grant. MCF acknowledges support from the National Institutes of Health (5 K01 AI141576).
| S-EPMC8714489 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Evidence shows that chronic diseases are associated with COVID-19 severity and death. This study aims to estimate the fraction of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 attributable to chronic diseases associated to poor nutrition and smoking among adults who tested positive to COVID-19 in Mexico. We analyzed 1,006,541 adults aged ≥20 who tested positive for COVID-19 from March 23 to December 5, 2020. Six chronic diseases were considered: obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). We calibrated the database using a bias quantification method to consider undiagnosed disease cases. To estimate the total impact of multiple diseases, we defined a multimorbidity variable according to the number of diseases. Risks of hospitalization and death were estimated with Poisson regression models and used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs). Chronic diseases accounted for to 25.4% [95% CI: 24.8%-26.1%], 28.3% (95% CI: 27.8%-28.7%) and 15.3% (95% CI: 14.9%-15.7%) of the hospitalizations among adults below 40, 40-59, and 60 years and older, respectively. For COVID-19-related deaths, 50.1% (95% CI: 48.6%-51.5%), 40.5% (95% CI: 39.7%-41.3%), and 18.7% (95% CI, 18.0%-19.5%) were attributable to chronic diseases in adults under 40, 40-59, and 60 years and older, respectively. Chronic diseases linked to poor nutrition and smoking could have contributed to a large burden of hospitalization and deaths from COVID-19 in Mexico, particularly among younger adults. Medical and structural interventions to curb chronic disease incidence and facilitate disease control are urgently needed.
| S-EPMC8674104 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hospitalizations involving fungal infections increased 8.5% each year in the United States during 2019-2021. During 2020-2021, patients hospitalized with COVID-19-associated fungal infections had higher (48.5%) in-hospital mortality rates than those with non-COVID-19-associated fungal infections (12.3%). Improved fungal disease surveillance is needed, particularly during respiratory virus pandemics.
| S-EPMC10310397 | biostudies-literature