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Expected Rates of Select Adverse Events following Immunization for COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Monitoring.


ABSTRACT: Using meta-analytic methods, we calculated expected rates of 21 potential adverse events of special interest (AESI) that would occur following COVID-19 vaccination within 1-, 7-, and 42-day intervals without causal associations. Based on these expected rates, if 10,000,000 persons are vaccinated, 0.5, 3.7, and 22.5 Guillain-Barre syndrome cases; 0.3, 2.4, and 14.3 myopericarditis cases; and 236.5, 1655.5, and 9932.8 all-cause deaths would occur coincidentally within 1, 7, and 42 days post-vaccination, respectively. Expected rates of potential AESI can contextualize events associated temporally with immunization, aid in safety signal detection, guide COVID-19 vaccine health communications, and inform COVID-19 vaccine benefit-risk assessments.

SUBMITTER: Abara WE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8755334 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Expected Rates of Select Adverse Events After Immunization for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Safety Monitoring.

Abara Winston E WE   Gee Julianne J   Delorey Mark M   Tun Ye Y   Mu Yi Y   Shay David K DK   Shimabukuro Tom T  

The Journal of infectious diseases 20220501 9


Using meta-analytic methods, we calculated expected rates of 20 potential adverse events of special interest (AESI) that would occur after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination within 1-, 7-, and 42-day intervals without causal associations. Based on these expected rates, if 10 000 000 persons are vaccinated, (1) 0.5, 3.7, and 22.5 Guillain-Barre syndrome cases, (2) 0.3, 2.4, and 14.3 myopericarditis cases, (3) and 236.5, 1655.5, and 9932.8 all-cause deaths would occur coincidentally w  ...[more]

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