A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown.

Methods

A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0-F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirrhosis and thus potentially asymptomatic) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, thus potentiall

SUBMITTER: Kondili LA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8761836 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature