Risk of COVID-19 transmission in heterogeneous age groups and effective vaccination strategy in Korea: a mathematical modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

This study aims to analyze the possibility and conditions of maintaining an effective reproductive number below 1 using a mathematical model.

Methods

The total population was divided into five age groups (0-17, 18-29, 30-59, 60-74, and ≥75 years). Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was used to estimate the transmission rate of each age group. Mathematical model simulation was conducted until December 31, 2021, by establishing various strategies for vaccination and social distancing without considering variants.

Results

MLE results revealed that the group aged 0-17 years had a lower risk of transmission than other age groups, and the older age group had relatively high risks of infection. If 70% of the population will be vaccinated by the end of 2021, then

SUBMITTER: Ko Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8769805 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature