Easy computation of the Bayes factor to fully quantify Occam's razor in least-squares fitting and to guide actions.

ABSTRACT: The Bayes factor is the gold-standard figure of merit for comparing fits of models to data, for hypothesis selection and parameter estimation. However, it is little-used because it has been considered to be subjective, and to be computationally very intensive. A simple computational method has been known for at least 30 years, but has been dismissed as an approximation. We show here that all three criticisms are misplaced. The method should be used to complement and augment all least-squares fitting, because it can give very different, and better outcomes than classical methods. It can discriminate between models with equal numbers of parameters and equally good fits to data. It quantifies the Occam's Razor injunction against over-fitting, and it demands that physically-meaningful paramete

SUBMITTER: Dunstan DJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8770492 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature