Reconstruction of the Transmission Chain of COVID-19 Outbreak in Beijing's Xinfadi Market, China.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The aim of the study was to reconstruct the complete transmission chain of the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing's Xinfadi Market using data from epidemiological investigations, which contributes to reflecting transmission dynamics and transmission risk factors.

Methods

We set up a transmission model, and the model parameters are estimated from the survey data via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Bayesian data augmentation approaches are used to account for uncertainty in the source of infection, unobserved onset, and infection dates.

Results

The rate of transmission of COVID-19 within households is 9.2%. Older people are more susceptible to infection. The accuracy of our reconstructed transmission chain was 67.26%. In the gathering place of this outbreak, the

SUBMITTER: Luo T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8776627 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature