Nonlinear sensitivity of glacier mass balance to future climate change unveiled by deep learning.

ABSTRACT: Glaciers and ice caps are experiencing strong mass losses worldwide, challenging water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystems. Here, we perform the first-ever glacier evolution projections based on deep learning by modelling the 21st century glacier evolution in the French Alps. By the end of the century, we predict a glacier volume loss between 75 and 88%. Deep learning captures a nonlinear response of glaciers to air temperature and precipitation, improving the representation of extreme mass balance rates compared to linear statistical and temperature-index models. Our results confirm an over-sensitivity of temperature-index models, often used by large-scale studies, to future warming. We argue that such models can be suitable for steep mountain glaciers. However, glacier pr

SUBMITTER: Bolibar J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8776880 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature