Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas.

ABSTRACT: National parks often serve as a cornerstone for a country's species and ecosystem conservation efforts. However, despite the protection these sites afford, climate change is expected to drive a substantial change in their bird assemblages. We used species distribution models to predict the change in environmental suitability (i.e., how well environmental conditions explain the presence of a species) of 49 Canadian national parks during summer and winter for 434 bird species under a 2°C warming scenario, anticipated to occur in Canada around the mid-21st century. We compared these to existing species distributions in the 2010s, and classified suitability projections for each species at each park as potential extirpation, worsening, stable, improving, or potential colonisation. Across all pa

SUBMITTER: Gahbauer MA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8782523 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature