Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In recent years, a programme of vector control, screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of Chad. To represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse, we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model, fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by 2015. The present study outlines refinements to the model to: (1) Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting; (2) quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction; and (3) predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different strategies.

Method

Our previou

SUBMITTER: Rock KS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8785021 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature