Epidemiology and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in partially vaccinated populations: a modeling study applied to France.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Vaccination is expected to change the epidemiology and management of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics.

Methods

We used an age-stratified compartmental model calibrated to French data to anticipate these changes and determine implications for the control of an autumn epidemic. We assumed vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalization, infection, and transmission if infected by 95%, 60%, and 50%, respectively.

Results

In our baseline scenario characterized by basic reproduction number R₀=5 and a vaccine coverage of 70-80-90% among 12-17, 18-59, and ≥ 60 years old, important stress on healthcare is expected in the absence of measures. Unvaccinated adults ≥60 years old represent 3% of the population but 43% of hospitalizations. Given limited vaccine coverage, child

SUBMITTER: Bosetti P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8789481 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature