Simpson's Paradox in COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates: A Mediation Analysis of Age-Related Causal Effects.

ABSTRACT: We point out an instantiation of Simpson's paradox in COVID-19 case fatality rates (cfrs): comparing a large-scale study from China (February 17) with early reports from Italy (March 9), we find that cfrs are lower in Italy for every age group, but higher overall. This phenomenon is explained by a stark difference in case demographic between the two countries. Using this as a motivating example, we introduce basic concepts from mediation analysis and show how these can be used to quantify different direct and indirect effects when assuming a coarse-grained causal graph involving country, age, and case fatality. We curate an age-stratified cfr dataset with [Formula: see text]750 k cases and conduct a case study, investigating total, direct, and indirect (age-mediated) causal effects between

SUBMITTER: von Kugelgen J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8791436 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature