Prediction of long-term kinetics of vaccine-elicited neutralizing antibody and time-varying vaccine-specific efficacy against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant by clinical endpoint.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Evidence on vaccine-specific protection over time, in particular against the Delta variant, and protection afforded by a homologous third dose is urgently needed.

Methods

We used a previously published model and neutralization data for five vaccines-mRNA-1273, BNT162b2, NVX-CoV2373, V01, and CoronaVac- to evaluate long-term neutralizing antibody dynamics and predict time-varying efficacy against the Delta variant by specific vaccine, age group, and clinical severity.

Results

We found that homologous third-dose vaccination produces higher neutralization titers compared with titers observed following primary-series vaccination for all vaccines studied. We estimate the efficacy of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 against Delta variant infection to be 63.5% (95% CI: 51.4

SUBMITTER: Chen X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8794738 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature