Breaking new grounds: a fresh insight into the leading properties of business and consumer survey indicators.

ABSTRACT: Ever since their initiation 60 years ago, the harmonized European Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) have risen to the challenge of performing as a solid data pillar for quantifying leading indicators of economic activity. However, mainstream research mainly focuses on publicly available composite BCS confidence indicators and inspects their predictive accuracy. We depart from this stance by considering a battery of novel techniques for quantifying BCS-based leading indicators with the particular aim to evaluate their predictive characteristics compared to conventional BCS leading indicators. We build upon the recently established weighted balance method, forecast disagreement, and surprise index. Additionally, we differ from the standpoint of rational expectations by introducing indicato

SUBMITTER: Soric P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8799432 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature