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Impact of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in U.S. states.

ABSTRACT: Governments worldwide are implementing mass vaccination programs in an effort to end the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we evaluated the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program in its early stage and predicted the path to herd immunity in the U.S. By early March 2021, we estimated that vaccination reduced the total number of new cases by 4.4 million (from 33.0 to 28.6 million), prevented approximately 0.12 million hospitalizations (from 0.89 to 0.78 million), and decreased the population infection rate by 1.34 percentage points (from 10.10 to 8.76%). We built a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with vaccination to predict herd immunity, following the trends from the early-stage vaccination program. Herd immunity could be achieved earlier with a faster vaccination pace, lower vaccine hesitancy, and higher vaccine effectiveness. The Delta variant has substantially postponed the predicted herd immunity date, through a combination of reduced vaccine effectiveness, lowered recovery rate, and increased infection and death rates. These findings improve our understanding of the COVID-19 vaccination and can inform future public health policies.

SUBMITTER: Chen X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8799714 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in U.S. states.

Chen Xiao X Huang Hanwei H Ju Jiandong J Sun Ruoyan R Zhang Jialiang J

Scientific reports 20220128 1

Governments worldwide are implementing mass vaccination programs in an effort to end the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we evaluated the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program in its early stage and predicted the path to herd immunity in the U.S. By early March 2021, we estimated that vaccination reduced the total number of new cases by 4.4 million (from 33.0 to 28.6 million), prevented approximately 0.12 million hospitalizations (from 0.89 to 0.78 million), and decrease ...[more]

PMID: 35091640

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Project description:IntroductionThis study aimed to investigate the immediate impact and long-term implications of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus on orthodontic practices in the United States in 2020.MethodsA 35-item survey was developed and validated to investigate the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on the orthodontic specialty. The survey contained 5 domains, including respondent's demographic information, COVID-19 information acquisition, practice ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic, financial implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, and patient management strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic. This voluntary survey acquired responses from active orthodontists in the United States. Associations of demographic and practice characteristics with items related to COVID-19 were assessed using chi-square tests, with a 5% significance level.ResultsThe survey was disseminated to 5,694 orthodontists, and 507 complete surveys were obtained (response rate of 8.9%). Respondents indicated that they obtained the most useful information regarding the COVID-19 pandemic through professional associations and internet or online news resources. However, 30% of the orthodontists believed information regarding personal financial guidelines was lacking. Most respondents identified delayed treatment progress and temporary staff layoffs as the 2 most negative ramifications of mandated office closures. Approximately 93% of practices applied for and used some sort of stimulus funding offered through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act. Respondents indicated that the COVID-19 related office closures resulted in an average of 50% decrease in net revenue.ConclusionsThe survey found that the COVID-19 pandemic had a broad and significant impact on patient care and financial aspects of U.S. orthodontic practices in 2020. Although generally accepting of the federal and state recommendations, respondents appeared to desire more guidance during the early phase of the pandemic.

Project description:ImportanceCOVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear.ObjectiveTo project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups).DesignThe COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario.SettingThe entire United States.ParticipantsNone.ExposureAnnually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster.Main outcomes and measuresEnsemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period.ResultsFrom April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths.Conclusion and relevanceCOVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

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Impact of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in U.S. states.

Publications

Impact of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in U.S. states.

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