Using the hybrid EMD-BPNN model to predict the incidence of HIV in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, 2004-2018.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a malignant infectious disease with high mortality caused by HIV (human immunodeficiency virus, and up to now there are no curable drugs or effective vaccines. In order to understand AIDS's development trend, we establish hybrid EMD-BPNN (empirical modal decomposition and Back-propagation artificial neural network model) model to forecast new HIV infection in Dalian and to evaluate model's performance.

Methods

The monthly HIV data series are decomposed by EMD method, and then all decomposition results are used as training and testing data to establish BPNN model, namely BPNN was fitted to each IMF (intrinsic mode function) and residue separately, and the predicted value is the sum of the predicted values from the models

SUBMITTER: An Q 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8799978 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature