Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013-19: a mathematical modelling analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Many children who develop tuberculosis are thought to be missed by diagnostic and reporting systems. We aimed to estimate paediatric tuberculosis incidence and underreporting between 2013 and 2019 in countries representing more than 99% of the global tuberculosis burden.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model of paediatric tuberculosis natural history, accounting for key mechanisms and risk factors for infectious exposure (HIV, malnutrition, and BCG non-vaccination), the probability of infection given exposure, and progression to disease among infected individuals. We extracted paediatric population estimates from UN Population Division data, and we used WHO estimates for adult tuberculosis incidence rates. We parameterised this model for 185 countries and cali

SUBMITTER: Yerramsetti S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8800006 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature