SARS-CoV-2 transmission in opposition-controlled Northwest Syria: modeling pandemic responses during political conflict.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Ten years of conflict has displaced more than half of Northwest Syria's (NWS) population and decimated the health system, water and sanitation, and public health infrastructure vital for infectious disease control. The first NWS COVID-19 case was declared on July 9, 2020, but impact estimations in this region are minimal. With the rollout of vaccination and emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 trajectory in NWS and the potential effects of vaccine coverage and hospital occupancy.

Methods

We conducted a mixed-method study, primarily including modeling projections of COVID-19 transmission scenarios with vaccination strategies using an age-structured, compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, suppo

SUBMITTER: Marzouk M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8808433 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature