How the Black Swan damages the harvest: Extreme weather events and the fragility of agriculture in development countries.

ABSTRACT: Climate change constitutes a rising challenge to the agricultural base of developing countries. Most of the literature has focused on the impact of changes in the means of weather variables on mean changes in production and has found very little impact of weather upon agricultural production. Instead, we focus on the relationship between extreme events in weather and extreme losses in crop production. Indeed, extreme events are of the greatest interest for scholars and policy makers only when they carry extraordinary negative effects. We build on this idea and for the first time, we adopt a conditional dependence model for multivariate extreme values to understand the impact of extreme weather on agricultural production. Specifically, we look at the probability that an extreme event drasti

SUBMITTER: Marmai N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8809593 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature