Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic disrupted tuberculosis (TB) health services, including treatment support and access to drugs, as patients were not able to access health facilities. While the effect of this disruption on treatment outcomes has been studied in isolated treatment centres, cities and provinces, the impact of the pandemic on TB treatment outcomes at a country and regional level has not been evaluated.MethodsWe used treatment outcomes for new and relapse TB cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from 49 high TB, TB/HIV and drug-resistant TB burden countries from 2012 to 2019. We developed multinomial logistic regression models for trends in TB treatment success, failure, death and loss to follow up. We predicted TB treatment outcomes for 2020 and 2021, comparing these to observations, by computing ratios between observed and predicted probabilities. We aggregated these risk ratios (RR) for six WHO-defined regions using random-effects meta-analysis.ResultsAcross 49 countries and four TB treatment outcomes, 17 (out of 196) country-outcome pairs in 2020 and 21 in 2021 had evidence of systematic differences between observed and predicted TB treatment outcome probabilities. Regionally, only four (out of 24) region-outcome pairs had evidence of systematic differences in 2020 and four in 2021, where the European region accounted for four of these in total. Globally, there was evidence of systematic differences in treatment failure in both 2020 (RR: 1.14, 95%CI: 1.01-1.28, p = 0.0381) and 2021 (RR: 1.36, 95%CI: 1.03-1.78, p = 0.0277), deaths in 2020 (RR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.03-1.13, p = 0.0010) and losses to follow up in 2020 (RR: 0.91, 95%CI: 0.86-0.97, p = 0.0059).ConclusionsWhile for some countries and regions there were significant differences between observed and predicted treatment outcomes probabilities, there was insufficient evidence globally to identify systematic differences between observed and expected TB treatment outcome probabilities because of COVID-19-associated disruptions in general. However, larger numbers of treatment failures and deaths on treatment than expected were observed globally, suggesting a need for further investigation.

Project description:BackgroundDrug resistance is a challenge for the global control of tuberculosis. We examined mortality in patients with tuberculosis from high-burden countries, according to concordance or discordance of results from drug susceptibility testing done locally and in a reference laboratory.MethodsThis multicentre cohort study was done in Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Peru, and Thailand. We collected Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates and clinical data from adult patients aged 16 years or older. Patients were stratified by HIV status and tuberculosis drug resistance. Molecular or phenotypic drug susceptibility testing was done locally and at the Swiss National Center for Mycobacteria, Zurich, Switzerland. We examined mortality during treatment according to drug susceptibility test results and treatment adequacy in multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for sex, age, sputum microscopy, and HIV status.FindingsWe obtained M tuberculosis isolates from 871 patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2016. After exclusion of 237 patients, 634 patients with tuberculosis were included in this analysis; the median age was 33·2 years (IQR 26·9-42·5), 239 (38%) were women, 272 (43%) were HIV-positive, and 69 (11%) patients died. Based on the reference laboratory drug susceptibility test, 394 (62%) strains were pan-susceptible, 45 (7%) monoresistant, 163 (26%) multidrug-resistant (MDR), and 30 (5%) had pre-extensively or extensively drug resistant (pre-XDR or XDR) tuberculosis. Results of reference and local laboratories were concordant for 513 (81%) of 634 patients and discordant for 121 (19%) of 634. Overall, sensitivity to detect any resistance was 90·8% (95% CI 86·5-94·2) and specificity 84·3% (80·3-87·7). Mortality ranged from 6% (20 of 336) in patients with pan-susceptible tuberculosis treated according to WHO guidelines to 57% (eight of 14) in patients with resistant strains who were under-treated. In logistic regression models, compared with concordant drug susceptibility test results, the adjusted odds ratio of death was 7·33 (95% CI 2·70-19·95) for patients with discordant results potentially leading to under-treatment.InterpretationInaccurate drug susceptibility testing by comparison with a reference standard leads to under-treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis and increased mortality. Rapid molecular drug susceptibility test of first-line and second-line drugs at diagnosis is required to improve outcomes in patients with MDR tuberculosis and pre-XDR or XDR tuberculosis.FundingNational Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss National Center for Mycobacteria.

Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis remains a major public health priority and is the second leading cause of mortality from infectious disease worldwide. TB case detection rates are unacceptably low for men, the elderly and children. Disruptions in TB services due to the COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated these and other inequalities.MethodsWe modelled trends in age- and sex- disaggregated case notifications for all forms of new and relapse TB reported to the World Health Organization for 45 high TB, TB/HIV and MDR-TB burden countries from 2013 to 2019. We compared trend predicted notifications to observed notifications in 2020 to estimate the number of people with TB likely to have missed or delayed diagnosis. We estimated the risk ratio (RR) of missed or delayed TB diagnosis for children (aged < 15 years) or the elderly (aged ≥ 65 years) compared to adults (aged 15-64 years) and women compared to men (both aged ≥ 15 years) using a random-effects meta-analysis.ResultsAn estimated 195,449 children (95% confidence interval, CI: 189,673-201,562, 37.8% of an expected 517,168), 1,126,133 adults (CI: 1,107,146-1,145,704, 21.8% of an expected 5,170,592) and 235,402 elderly (CI: 228,108-243,202, 28.5% of an expected 826,563) had a missed or delayed TB diagnosis in 2020. This included 511,546 women (CI: 499,623-523,869, 22.7%, of an expected 2,250,097) and 863,916 men (CI: 847,591-880,515, 23.0% of an expected 3,763,363). There was no evidence globally that the risk of having TB diagnosis missed or delayed was different for children and adults (RR: 1.09, CI: 0.41-2.91), the elderly and adults (RR: 1.40, CI: 0.62-3.16) or men and women (RR: 0.59, CI: 0.25-1.42). However, there was evidence of disparities in risk by age and/or sex in some WHO regions and in most countries.ConclusionsThere is no evidence at an aggregate global level of any difference by age or sex in the risk of disruption to TB diagnosis as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in many countries, disruptions in TB services have been greater for some groups than others. It is important to recognise these context-specific inequalities when prioritising key populations for catch-up campaigns.

Project description:BackgroundPreventive therapy for tuberculosis reduces the risk of disease in people who have been infected but who are not sick. Countries with a high burden of tuberculosis that are expanding preventive therapy use must decide how tuberculosis infection testing should be used for risk stratification among household contacts of patients with tuberculosis.MethodsWe modelled the risks of tuberculosis disease and severe adverse events, comparing the following two preventive therapy strategies: preventive therapy for all household contacts, or preventive therapy for only household contacts with a positive tuberculin skin test (TST) result. We used data from clinical trials and literature on tuberculosis natural history to model outcomes, assuming different preventive therapy regimens, ages, and TST positivity prevalence.FindingsAssuming 25% prevalence of TST positivity among 1000 household contacts aged 0-17 years, a treat-all approach with isoniazid and rifapentine compared with a treat-TST-only approach led to 13 fewer incident tuberculosis cases (IQR -5 to -18) and four additional severe adverse events (2 to 6). With rifampicin, the difference was 11 fewer incident tuberculosis cases (-3 to -17) and two additional severe adverse events (1 to 3). For adults, a treat-all approach led to fewer incident tuberculosis cases, and additional adverse events increased with age. Assuming 25% prevalence of TST positivity among adult contacts, a treat-all approach would lead to around two fewer tuberculosis cases per 1000 contacts for all regimens; the number of additional severe adverse events ranged from seven (IQR 5 to 8) for 18 to 34-year-olds treated with rifampicin to 63 (50 to 74) for people older than 64 years treated with isoniazid and rifapentine. A rifampicin-only regimen was associated with the fewest additional severe adverse events (seven [IQR 5 to 8] per 1000 adults aged 18-34 years and 35-64 years, and 17 [9 to 23] per 1000 adults older than 64 years).InterpretationBased on the available data, giving preventive therapy to all household contacts would probably reduce the incidence of tuberculosis cases in high-burden settings. Adverse events could be minimised by using non-isoniazid regimens and, in adults older than 18 years, focusing treatment on individuals with a positive infection test.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and UK Department for International Development.

Project description:BackgroundThe triple burden of COVID-19, tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus is one of the major global health challenges of the twenty-first century. In high burden HIV/TB countries, the spread of COVID-19 among people living with HIV is a well-founded concern. A thorough understanding of HIV/TB and COVID-19 pandemics is important as the three diseases interact. This may clarify HIV/TB/COVID-19 as a newly related field. However, several gaps remain in the knowledge of the burden of COVID-19 on patients with TB and HIV. This study was conducted to review different studies on SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV or COVID-19 associated with HIV/TB co-infection or only TB, to understand the interactions between HIV, TB and COVID-19 and its implications on the burden of the COVID-19 among HIV/TB co-infected or TB patients, screening algorithm and clinical management.MethodsWe conducted an electronic search of potentially eligible studies published in English in the Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials, PubMed, Medrxiv, Google scholar and Clinical Trials Registry databases. We included case studies, case series and observational studies published between January, 2002 and July, 2020 in which SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and COVID-19 co-infected to HIV/TB or TB in adults. We screened titles, abstracts and full articles for eligibility. Descriptive and meta-analysis were done and results have been presented in graphs and tables.ResultsAfter removing 95 duplicates, 58 out of 437 articles were assessed for eligibility, of which 14 studies were included for descriptive analysis and seven studies were included in the meta-analysis. Compared to the descriptive analysis, the meta-analysis showed strong evidence that current TB exposure was high-risk COVID-19 group (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.06-2.65, P = 0.03). The pooled of COVID-19/TB severity rate increased from OR 4.50 (95% CI 1.12-18.10, P = 0.03), the recovery rate was high among COVID-19 compared to COVID-19/TB irrespective of HIV status (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.83-2.74, P < 0.001) and the mortality was reduced among non-TB group (P < 0.001).ConclusionIn summary, TB was a risk factor for COVID-19 both in terms of severity and mortality irrespective of HIV status. Structured diagnostic algorithms and clinical management are suggested to improve COVID-19/HIV/TB or COVID-19/TB co-infections outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundDrug resistance threatens global tuberculosis control. We aimed to examine mortality in patients with tuberculosis from high-burden countries, according to concordance or discordance of results from drug susceptibility testing done locally and whole-genome sequencing (WGS).MethodsIn this multicentre cohort study, we collected pulmonary Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates and clinical data from individuals with tuberculosis from antiretroviral therapy programmes and tuberculosis clinics in Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, Peru, South Africa, and Thailand, stratified by HIV status and drug resistance. Sites tested drug susceptibility using routinely available methods. WGS was done on Illumina HiSeq 2500 in the USA and Switzerland, and TBprofiler was used to analyse the genomes. We included individuals aged 16 years or older with pulmonary tuberculosis (bacteriologically confirmed or clinically diagnosed). We analysed mortality in multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for sex, age, HIV status, history of tuberculosis, and sputum positivity.FindingsBetween Sept 1, 2014, and July 4, 2016, of 634 patients included in our previous analysis, we included 582 patients with tuberculosis (median age 33 years [IQR 27-43], 225 [39%] women, and 247 [42%] HIV-positive). Based on WGS, 339 (58%) isolates were pan-susceptible, 35 (6%) monoresistant, 146 (25%) multidrug-resistant, and 24 (4%) pre-extensively drug-resistant (pre-XDR) or XDR. The analysis of mortality was based on 530 patients; 63 (12%) died and 77 (15%) patients received inappropriate treatment. Mortality ranged from 6% (18 of 310) in patients with pan-susceptible tuberculosis to 39% (nine of 23) in patients with pre-XDR or XDR tuberculosis. The adjusted odds ratio for mortality was 4·92 (95% CI 2·47-9·78) among undertreated patients, compared with appropriately treated patients.InterpretationIn seven countries with a high burden of tuberculosis, we observed discrepancies between drug resistance patterns obtained locally and WGS. The underdiagnosis of drug resistance resulted in inappropriate treatment and higher mortality. WGS can provide accurate and detailed drug resistance information required to improve the outcomes of drug-resistant tuberculosis in high-burden settings. Our results support WHO's call for point-of-care tests based on WGS.FundingNational Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Swiss National Science Foundation, and Swiss National Center for Mycobacteria.

Project description:Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Considering the World Health Organization recommendation to implement child contact management (CCM) for TB, we conducted a mixed-methods systematic review to summarize CCM implementation, challenges, predictors, and recommendations. We searched the electronic databases of PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science for studies published between 1996-2017 that reported CCM data from high TB-burden countries. Protocol details for this systematic review were registered on PROSPERO: International prospective register of systematic reviews (#CRD42016038105). We formulated a search strategy to identify all available studies, published in English that specifically targeted a) population: child contacts (<15 years) exposed to TB in the household from programmatic settings in high burden countries (HBCs), b) interventions: CCM strategies implemented within the CCM cascade, c) comparisons: CCM strategies studied and compared in HBCs, and d) outcomes: monitoring and evaluation of CCM outcomes reported in the literature for each CCM cascade step. We included any quantitative, qualitative, mixed-methods study design except for randomized-controlled trials, editorials or commentaries. Thirty-seven studies were reviewed. Child contact losses varied greatly for screening, isoniazid preventive therapy initiation, and completion. CCM challenges included: infrastructure, knowledge, attitudes, stigma, access, competing priorities, and treatment. CCM recommendations included: health system strengthening, health education, and improved preventive therapy. Identified predictors included: index case and clinic characteristics, perceptions of barriers and risk, costs, and treatment characteristics. CCM lacks standardization resulting in common challenges and losses throughout the CCM cascade. Prioritization of a CCM-friendly healthcare environment with improved CCM processes and tools; health education; and active, evidence-based strategies can decrease barriers. A focused approach toward every aspect of the CCM cascade will likely diminish losses throughout the CCM cascade and ultimately decrease TB related morbidity and mortality in children.

Project description:BackgroundScreening of household contacts of tuberculosis (TB) patients is a recommended strategy to improve early case detection. While it has been widely implemented in low prevalence countries, the most optimal protocols for contact investigation in high prevalence, low resource settings is yet to be determined. This study evaluated contact investigation interventions in eleven lower and middle income countries and reviewed the association between context or program-related factors and the yield of cases among contacts.MethodsWe reviewed data from nineteen first wave TB REACH funded projects piloting innovations to improve case detection. These nineteen had fulfilled the eligibility criteria: contact investigation implementation and complete data reporting. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the percentage yield and case notifications for each project. Implementation strategies were delineated and the association between independent variables and yield was analyzed by fitting a random effects logistic regression.FindingsOverall, the nineteen interventions screened 139,052 household contacts, showing great heterogeneity in the percentage yield of microscopy confirmed cases (SS+), ranging from 0.1% to 6.2%). Compared to the most restrictive testing criteria (at least two weeks of cough) the aOR's for lesser (any TB related symptom) and least (all contacts) restrictive testing criteria were 1.71 (95%CI 0.94-3.13) and 6.90 (95% CI 3.42-13.93) respectively. The aOR for inclusion of SS- and extra-pulmonary TB was 0.31 (95% CI 0.15-0.62) compared to restricting index cases to SS+ TB. Contact investigation contributed between <1% and 14% to all SS+ cases diagnosed in the intervention areas.ConclusionsThis study confirms that high numbers of active TB cases can be identified through contact investigation in a variety of contexts. However, design and program implementation factors appear to influence the yield of contact investigation and its concomitant contribution to TB case detection.

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Considerations for simultaneous testing of COVID-19 and tuberculosis in high-burden countries.

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Considerations for simultaneous testing of COVID-19 and tuberculosis in high-burden countries.

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