Dataset Information

A population-based cohort study of obesity, ethnicity and COVID-19 mortality in 12.6 million adults in England.

ABSTRACT: Obesity and ethnicity are known risk factors for COVID-19 outcomes, but their combination has not been extensively examined. We investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and COVID-19 mortality across different ethnic groups using linked national Census, electronic health records and mortality data for adults in England from the start of pandemic (January 2020) to December 2020. There were 30,067 (0.27%), 1,208 (0.29%), 1,831 (0.29%), 845 (0.18%) COVID-19 deaths in white, Black, South Asian and other ethnic minority groups, respectively. Here we show that BMI was more strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality in ethnic minority groups, resulting in an ethnic risk of COVID-19 mortality that was dependant on BMI. The estimated risk of COVID-19 mortality at a BMI of 40 kg/m² in white ethnicities was equivalent to the risk observed at a BMI of 30.1 kg/m², 27.0 kg/m², and 32.2 kg/m² in Black, South Asian and other ethnic minority groups, respectively.

SUBMITTER: Yates T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8810846 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A population-based cohort study of obesity, ethnicity and COVID-19 mortality in 12.6 million adults in England.

Yates Thomas T Summerfield Annabel A Razieh Cameron C Banerjee Amitava A Chudasama Yogini Y Davies Melanie J MJ Gillies Clare C Islam Nazrul N Lawson Claire C Mirkes Evgeny E Zaccardi Francesco F Khunti Kamlesh K Nafilyan Vahé V

Nature communications 20220202 1

Obesity and ethnicity are known risk factors for COVID-19 outcomes, but their combination has not been extensively examined. We investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and COVID-19 mortality across different ethnic groups using linked national Census, electronic health records and mortality data for adults in England from the start of pandemic (January 2020) to December 2020. There were 30,067 (0.27%), 1,208 (0.29%), 1,831 (0.29%), 845 (0.18%) COVID-19 deaths in white, Black, S ...[more]

PMID: 35110546

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Project description:BackgroundUpdatable estimates of COVID-19 onset, progression, and trajectories underpin pandemic mitigation efforts. To identify and characterise disease trajectories, we aimed to define and validate ten COVID-19 phenotypes from nationwide linked electronic health records (EHR) using an extensible framework.MethodsIn this cohort study, we used eight linked National Health Service (NHS) datasets for people in England alive on Jan 23, 2020. Data on COVID-19 testing, vaccination, primary and secondary care records, and death registrations were collected until Nov 30, 2021. We defined ten COVID-19 phenotypes reflecting clinically relevant stages of disease severity and encompassing five categories: positive SARS-CoV-2 test, primary care diagnosis, hospital admission, ventilation modality (four phenotypes), and death (three phenotypes). We constructed patient trajectories illustrating transition frequency and duration between phenotypes. Analyses were stratified by pandemic waves and vaccination status.FindingsAmong 57 032 174 individuals included in the cohort, 13 990 423 COVID-19 events were identified in 7 244 925 individuals, equating to an infection rate of 12·7% during the study period. Of 7 244 925 individuals, 460 737 (6·4%) were admitted to hospital and 158 020 (2·2%) died. Of 460 737 individuals who were admitted to hospital, 48 847 (10·6%) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), 69 090 (15·0%) received non-invasive ventilation, and 25 928 (5·6%) received invasive ventilation. Among 384 135 patients who were admitted to hospital but did not require ventilation, mortality was higher in wave 1 (23 485 [30·4%] of 77 202 patients) than wave 2 (44 220 [23·1%] of 191 528 patients), but remained unchanged for patients admitted to the ICU. Mortality was highest among patients who received ventilatory support outside of the ICU in wave 1 (2569 [50·7%] of 5063 patients). 15 486 (9·8%) of 158 020 COVID-19-related deaths occurred within 28 days of the first COVID-19 event without a COVID-19 diagnoses on the death certificate. 10 884 (6·9%) of 158 020 deaths were identified exclusively from mortality data with no previous COVID-19 phenotype recorded. We observed longer patient trajectories in wave 2 than wave 1.InterpretationOur analyses illustrate the wide spectrum of disease trajectories as shown by differences in incidence, survival, and clinical pathways. We have provided a modular analytical framework that can be used to monitor the impact of the pandemic and generate evidence of clinical and policy relevance using multiple EHR sources.FundingBritish Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, led by Health Data Research UK.

Project description:BackgroundNational and global recommendations for BMI cutoffs to trigger action to prevent obesity-related complications like type 2 diabetes among non-White populations are questionable. We aimed to prospectively identify ethnicity-specific BMI cutoffs for obesity based on the risk of type 2 diabetes that are risk-equivalent to the BMI cutoff for obesity among White populations (≥30 kg/m2).MethodsIn this population-based cohort study, we used electronic health records across primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) linked to secondary care records (Hospital Episodes Statistics) from a network of general practitioner practices in England. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older, without any past or current diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, had a BMI of 15·0-50·0 kg/m2 and complete ethnicity data, were registered with a general practitioner practice in England at any point between Sept 1, 1990, and Dec 1, 2018, and had at least 1 year of follow-up data. Patients with type 2 diabetes were identified by use of a CALIBER phenotyping algorithm. Self-reported ethnicity was collapsed into five main categories. Age-adjusted and sex-adjusted negative binomial regression models, with fractional polynomials for BMI, were fitted with incident type 2 diabetes and ethnicity data.Findings1 472 819 people were included in our study, of whom 1 333 816 (90·6%) were White, 75 956 (5·2%) were south Asian, 49 349 (3·4%) were Black, 10 934 (0·7%) were Chinese, and 2764 (0·2%) were Arab. After a median follow-up of 6·5 years (IQR 3·2-11·2), 97 823 (6·6%) of 1 472 819 individuals were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. For the equivalent age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence of type 2 diabetes at a BMI of 30·0 kg/m2 in White populations, the BMI cutoffs were 23·9 kg/m2 (95% CI 23·6-24·0) in south Asian populations, 28·1 kg/m2 (28·0-28·4) in Black populations, 26·9 kg/m2 (26·7-27·2) in Chinese populations, and 26·6 kg/m2 (26·5-27·0) in Arab populations.InterpretationRevisions of ethnicity-specific BMI cutoffs are needed to ensure that minority ethnic populations are provided with appropriate clinical surveillance to optimise the prevention, early diagnosis, and timely management of type 2 diabetes.FundingNational Institute for Health Research.

Project description:BackgroundInfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces a prothrombotic state, but long-term effects of COVID-19 on incidence of vascular diseases are unclear.MethodsWe studied vascular diseases after COVID-19 diagnosis in population-wide anonymized linked English and Welsh electronic health records from January 1 to December 7, 2020. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios comparing the incidence of arterial thromboses and venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) after diagnosis of COVID-19 with the incidence in people without a COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted subgroup analyses by COVID-19 severity, demographic characteristics, and previous history.ResultsAmong 48 million adults, 125 985 were hospitalized and 1 319 789 were not hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. In England, there were 260 279 first arterial thromboses and 59 421 first VTEs during 41.6 million person-years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for first arterial thrombosis after COVID-19 diagnosis compared with no COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 21.7 (95% CI, 21.0-22.4) in week 1 after COVID-19 diagnosis to 1.34 (95% CI, 1.21-1.48) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios for first VTE after COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 33.2 (95% CI, 31.3-35.2) in week 1 to 1.80 (95% CI, 1.50-2.17) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios were higher, for longer after diagnosis, after hospitalized versus nonhospitalized COVID-19, among Black or Asian versus White people, and among people without versus with a previous event. The estimated whole-population increases in risk of arterial thromboses and VTEs 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis were 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively, corresponding to 7200 and 3500 additional events, respectively, after 1.4 million COVID-19 diagnoses.ConclusionsHigh relative incidence of vascular events soon after COVID-19 diagnosis declines more rapidly for arterial thromboses than VTEs. However, incidence remains elevated up to 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis. These results support policies to prevent severe COVID-19 by means of COVID-19 vaccines, early review after discharge, risk factor control, and use of secondary preventive agents in high-risk patients.

Project description:Ethnic minorities have experienced disproportionate COVID-19 mortality rates in the UK and many other countries. We compared the differences in the risk of COVID-19 related death between ethnic groups in the first and second waves the of COVID-19 pandemic in England. We also investigated whether the factors explaining differences in COVID-19 death between ethnic groups changed between the two waves. Using data from the Office for National Statistics Public Health Data Asset, a linked dataset combining the 2011 Census with primary care and hospital records and death registrations, we conducted an observational cohort study to examine differences in the risk of death involving COVID-19 between ethnic groups in the first wave (from 24th January 2020 until 31st August 2020) and the first part of the second wave (from 1st September to 28th December 2020). We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) in the two waves stratified by ethnic groups and sex. We also estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for ethnic-minority groups compared with the White British population, adjusted for geographical factors, socio-demographic characteristics, and pre-pandemic health conditions. The study population included over 28.9 million individuals aged 30-100 years living in private households. In the first wave, all ethnic minority groups had a higher risk of COVID-19 related death compared to the White British population. In the second wave, the risk of COVID-19 death remained elevated for people from Pakistani (ASMR: 339.9 [95% CI: 303.7-376.2] and 166.8 [141.7-191.9] deaths per 100,000 population in men and women) and Bangladeshi (318.7 [247.4-390.1] and 127.1 [91.1-171.3] in men and women) background but not for people from Black ethnic groups. Adjustment for geographical factors explained a large proportion of the differences in COVID-19 mortality in the first wave but not in the second wave. Despite an attenuation of the elevated risk of COVID-19 mortality after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and health status, the risk was substantially higher in people from Bangladeshi and Pakistani background in both the first and the second waves. Between the first and second waves of the pandemic, the reduction in the difference in COVID-19 mortality between people from Black ethnic background and people from the White British group shows that ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 mortality can be addressed. The continued higher rate of mortality in people from Bangladeshi and Pakistani background is alarming and requires focused public health campaign and policy changes.

Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate whether risk of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) differed between adults living with and without children during the first two waves of the UK pandemic.DesignPopulation based cohort study, on behalf of NHS England.SettingPrimary care data and pseudonymously linked hospital and intensive care admissions and death records from England, during wave 1 (1 February to 31 August 2020) and wave 2 (1 September to 18 December 2020).ParticipantsTwo cohorts of adults (18 years and over) registered at a general practice on 1 February 2020 and 1 September 2020.Main outcome measuresAdjusted hazard ratios for SARS-CoV-2 infection, covid-19 related admission to hospital or intensive care, or death from covid-19, by presence of children in the household.ResultsAmong 9 334 392adults aged 65 years and under, during wave 1, living with children was not associated with materially increased risks of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection, covid-19 related hospital or intensive care admission, or death from covid-19. In wave 2, among adults aged 65 years and under, living with children of any age was associated with an increased risk of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection (hazard ratio 1.06 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.08) for living with children aged 0-11 years; 1.22 (1.20 to 1.24) for living with children aged 12-18 years) and covid-19 related hospital admission (1.18 (1.06 to 1.31) for living with children aged 0-11; 1.26 (1.12 to 1.40) for living with children aged 12-18). Living with children aged 0-11 was associated with reduced risk of death from both covid-19 and non-covid-19 causes in both waves; living with children of any age was also associated with lower risk of dying from non-covid-19 causes. For adults 65 years and under during wave 2, living with children aged 0-11 years was associated with an increased absolute risk of having SARS-CoV-2 infection recorded of 40-60 per 10 000 people, from 810 to between 850 and 870, and an increase in the number of hospital admissions of 1-5 per 10 000 people, from 160 to between 161 and 165. Living with children aged 12-18 years was associated with an increase of 160-190 per 10 000 in the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and an increase of 2-6 per 10 000 in the number of hospital admissions.ConclusionsIn contrast to wave 1, evidence existed of increased risk of reported SARS-CoV-2 infection and covid-19 outcomes among adults living with children during wave 2. However, this did not translate into a materially increased risk of covid-19 mortality, and absolute increases in risk were small.

Dataset Information

A population-based cohort study of obesity, ethnicity and COVID-19 mortality in 12.6 million adults in England.

Publications

A population-based cohort study of obesity, ethnicity and COVID-19 mortality in 12.6 million adults in England.

Similar Datasets

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