County-Level Variation in Cirrhosis-Related Mortality in the US, 1999-2019.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ha AY
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8811626 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
County-Level Variation in Cirrhosis-Related Mortality in the US, 1999-2019.
Ha Audrey Y AY Le Michael H MH Henry Linda L Yeo Yee Hui YH Cheung Ramsey C RC Nguyen Mindie H MH
JAMA network open 20220201 2
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Project description:ImportanceThe association between cancer mortality and risk factors may vary by geography. However, conventional methodological approaches rarely account for this variation.ObjectiveTo identify geographic variations in the association between risk factors and cancer mortality.Design, setting, and participantsThis geospatial cross-sectional study used county-level data from the National Center for Health Statistics for individuals who died of cancer from 2008 to 2019. Risk factor data were obtained from County Health Rankings & Roadmaps, Health Resources and Services Administration, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Analyses were conducted from October 2021 to July 2022.Main outcomes and measuresConventional random forest models were applied nationwide and by US region, and the geographical random forest model (accounting for local variation of association) was applied to assess associations between a wide range of risk factors and cancer mortality.ResultsThe study included 7 179 201 individuals (median age, 70-74 years; 3 409 508 women [47.5%]) who died from cancer in 3108 contiguous US counties during 2008 to 2019. The mean (SD) county-level cancer mortality rate was 177.0 (26.4) deaths per 100 000 people. On the basis of the variable importance measure, the random forest models identified multiple risk factors associated with cancer mortality, including smoking, receipt of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, and obesity. The geographical random forest model further identified risk factors that varied at the county level. For example, receipt of SNAP benefits was a high-importance factor in the Appalachian region, North and South Dakota, and Northern California; smoking was of high importance in Kentucky and Tennessee; and female-headed households were high-importance factors in North and South Dakota. Geographic areas with certain high-importance risk factors did not consistently have a corresponding high prevalence of the same risk factors.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study, the associations between cancer mortality and risk factors varied by geography in a way that did not correspond strictly to risk factor prevalence. The degree to which other place-specific characteristics, observed and unobserved, modify risk factor effects should be further explored, and this work suggests that risk factor importance may be a preferable paradigm for selecting cancer control interventions compared with risk factor prevalence.
| S-EPMC9463612 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Amid stagnating declines in national cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, documenting trends in county-level hypertension-related CVD death rates can help activate local efforts prioritizing hypertension prevention, detection, and control. Methods and Results Using death certificate data from the National Vital Statistics System, Bayesian spatiotemporal models were used to estimate county-level hypertension-related CVD death rates and corresponding trends during 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019 for adults aged ≥35 years overall and by age group, race or ethnicity, and sex. Among adults aged 35 to 64 years, county-level hypertension-related CVD death rates increased from a median of 23.2 per 100 000 in 2000 to 43.4 per 100 000 in 2019. Among adults aged ≥65 years, county-level hypertension-related CVD death rates increased from a median of 362.1 per 100 000 in 2000 to 430.1 per 100 000 in 2019. Increases were larger and more prevalent among adults aged 35 to 64 years than those aged ≥65 years. More than 75% of counties experienced increasing hypertension-related CVD death rates among patients aged 35 to 64 years during 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019 (76.2% [95% credible interval, 74.7-78.4] and 86.2% [95% credible interval, 84.6-87.6], respectively), compared with 48.2% (95% credible interval, 47.0-49.7) during 2000 to 2010 and 66.1% (95% credible interval, 64.9-67.1) for patients aged ≥65 years. The highest rates for both age groups were among men and Black populations. All racial and ethnic categories in both age groups experienced widespread county-level increases. Conclusions Large, widespread county-level increases in hypertension-related CVD mortality sound an alarm for intensified clinical and public health actions to improve hypertension prevention, detection, and control and prevent subsequent CVD deaths in counties across the nation.
| S-EPMC9075476 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportancePreterm birth is a leading cause of preventable neonatal morbidity and mortality. Preterm birth rates at the national level may mask important geographic variation in rates and trends at the county level.ObjectiveTo estimate age-standardized preterm birth rates by US county from 2007 to 2019.Design, setting, and participantsThis serial cross-sectional study used data from the National Center for Health Statistics composed of all live births in the US between 2007 and 2019. Data analyses were performed between March 22, 2022, and September 29, 2022.Main outcomes and measuresAge-standardized preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation) and secondarily early preterm birth (<34 weeks' gestation) rates by county and year calculated with a validated small area estimation model (hierarchical bayesian spatiotemporal model) and percent change in preterm birth rates using log-linear regression models.ResultsBetween 2007 and 2019, there were 51 044 482 live births in 2383 counties. In 2007, the national age-standardized preterm birth rate was 12.6 (95% CI, 12.6-12.7) per 100 live births. Preterm birth rates varied significantly among counties, with an absolute difference between the 90th and 10th percentile counties of 6.4 (95% CI, 6.2-6.7). The gap between the highest and lowest counties for preterm births was 20.7 per 100 live births in 2007. Several counties in the Southeast consistently had the highest preterm birth rates compared with counties in California and New England, which had the lowest preterm birth rates. Although there was no statistically significant change in preterm birth rates between 2007 and 2019 at the national level (percent change, -5.0%; 95% CI, -10.7% to 0.9%), increases occurred in 15.4% (95% CI, 14.1%-16.9%) of counties. The absolute and relative geographic inequalities were similar across all maternal age groups. Higher quartile of the Social Vulnerability Index was associated with higher preterm birth rates (quartile 4 vs quartile 1 risk ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.31-1.36), which persisted across the study period. Similar patterns were observed for early preterm birth rates.Conclusions and relevanceIn this serial cross-sectional study of county-level preterm and early preterm birth rates, substantial geographic disparities were observed, which were associated with place-based social disadvantage. Stability in aggregated rates of preterm birth at the national level masked increases in nearly 1 in 6 counties between 2007 and 2019.
| S-EPMC10709777 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:Progress against premature death due to noncommunicable chronic disease (NCD) has stagnated. In the United States, county-level variation in NCD premature mortality has widened, which has impeded progress toward mortality reduction for the World Health Organization (WHO) 25 × 25 target. Objectives:To estimate variations in county-level NCD premature mortality, to investigate factors associated with mortality, and to present the progress toward achieving the WHO 25 × 25 target by analyzing the trends in mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cross-sectional study focused on NCD premature mortality and its factors from 3109 counties using US mortality data for cause of death from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER databases and county-level characteristics data from multiple databases. Data were collected from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2017, and analyzed from April 1 through October 28, 2019. Exposures:County-level factors, including demographic composition, socioeconomic features, health care environment, and population health status. Main Outcomes and Measures:Variations in county-level, age-adjusted NCD mortality in the US residents aged 25 to 64 years and associations between mortality and the 4 sets of county-level factors. Results:A total of 6 794 434 deaths due to NCD were recorded during the study period (50.58% women; 16.49% aged 65 years or older). Mortality decreased by 4.30 (95% CI, -4.54 to -4.08) deaths per 100 000 person-years annually from 1999 to 2010 (P < .001) and decreased annually at a rate of 0.90 (95% CI, -1.13 to -0.73) deaths per 100 000 person-years annually from 2010 to 2017 (P < .001). Mortality in the county with the highest mortality was 10.40 times as high as that in the county with the lowest mortality (615.40 vs 59.20 per 100 000 population) in 2017. Geographic inequality was decomposed by between-state and within-state differences, and within-state differences accounted for most inequality (57.10% in 2017). County-level factors were associated with 71.83% variation in NCD mortality. Association with intercounty mortality was 19.51% for demographic features, 23.34% for socioeconomic composition, 16.40% for health care environment, and 40.75% for health-status characteristics. Conclusions and Relevance:Given the stagnated trend of decline and increasing variations in NCD premature mortality, these findings suggest that the WHO 25 × 25 target appears to be unattainable, which may be related to broad failure by United Nations members to follow through on commitments of reducing socioeconomic inequalities. The increasing inequalities in mortality are alarming and warrant expanded multisectoral efforts to ameliorate socioeconomic disparities.
| S-EPMC7049090 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceFirearm violence remains a critical public health challenge, disproportionately impacting some US regions. County-level variation may hold key insights into how firearm mortality rates vary across the US.ObjectiveTo model county-level changes in firearm mortality rates (total, homicide, and suicide) from 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019 and identify and characterize hot spots showing unexpected changes over time.Design, setting, and participantsThis is a cross-sectional study with 2 time points using a novel small area estimation method to analyze restricted access mortality microdata by cause of death and US county. The analysis included 3111 US counties from 49 states and the District of Columbia from January 1, 1989, to December 31, 2019. Bayesian spatial models were fitted to map geographical variation in changes in age-standardized firearm mortality rates (per 100 000 person-years) from 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019. County outliers (or hot spots) were defined as having observed rates that fell outside the 95% credible intervals of their expected posterior predictive distribution. These counties were characterized using visualization and descriptive statistics of their characteristics. Data were analyzed from June to December 2021.ExposuresCounty of residence.Main outcomes and measuresFive-year age-standardized mortality rates by US county, age, and cause of death for 1989 to 1993 and 2015 to 2019.ResultsBetween 1989 and 2019, 1 036 518 firearm deaths were recorded in counties across the US. Suicide was the most common cause of firearm mortality (589 285 deaths) followed by homicide (412 231 deaths). Age-standardized rates (deaths per 100 000 individuals) for firearm deaths and suicides increased from 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019 (mean [SD] change, 0.16 [8.78] for firearm deaths and 1.21 [6.91] for suicides), while firearm homicides decreased (mean [SD] change, -0.39 [3.96]). However, these national trends were not homogeneous across counties and often varied by geographical region. The West and Midwest showed the most pronounced increases in firearm suicide rates, whereas the Southeast showed localized increases in firearm homicide rates, despite the national decreasing trend. Critical hot spots were identified in urban counties of Alabama, and firearm homicide rates (per 100 000) in Baltimore City, Maryland, almost doubled from 29.71 to 47.43, and by 2015 to 2019 it accounted for 66.7% of all firearm homicide in Maryland. By contrast, District of Columbia showed promising improvements over time, decreasing from 56.5 firearm homicides per 100 000 in 1989 to 1993 to 14.45 in 2015 to 2019.Conclusions and relevanceThere was substantial variation in rates and changes in firearm deaths among US counties. Geographical hot spots may be useful to inform targeted prevention efforts and local policy responses.
| S-EPMC9171565 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHealthcare coverage has been shown to have implications in the prevalence of coronary artery disease. We explore the impact of lack of healthcare coverage on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the US.MethodsWe obtained county-level IHD mortality and healthcare coverage data from the CDC databases for a total of 3,119 US counties. The age-adjusted prevalence of current lack of health insurance among individuals aged 18 to 64 years were obtained for the years 2018 and 2019 and were placed into four quartiles. First (Q1) and fourth quartile (Q4) had the least and highest age-adjusted prevalence of adults without health insurance, respectively. IHD mortality rates, adjusted for age through the direct method, were obtained for the same years and compared among quartiles. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for each demographic variable was conducted with the quartiles as an ordinal predictor variable and the age-adjusted mortality rate as the outcome variable.ResultsWe identified a total of 172,942 deaths related to ischemic heart disease between 2018 and 2019. Overall AAMR was higher in Q4 (92.79 [95% CI, 92.35-93.23]) compared to Q1 (83.14 [95% CI, 82.74-83.54]), accounting for 9.65 excess deaths per 100,000 person-years (slope = 3.47, p = 0.09). Mortality rates in Q4 for males (126.20 [95% CI, 125.42-126.98] and females (65.57 [95% CI, 65.08-66.05]) were higher compared to Q1 (115.72 [95% CI, 114.99-116.44] and 57.48 [95% CI, 57.04-57.91], respectively), accounting for 10.48 and 8.09 excess deaths per 100,000 person-years for males and females, respectively. Similar trends were seen among Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. Northeastern, Southern, and Western regions had higher AAMR within Q4 compared to Q1, with higher prevalence of current lack of health insurance accounting for 49.2, 8.15, and 29.04 excess deaths per 100,000 person-years, respectively.ConclusionA higher prevalence of adults without healthcare coverage may be associated with increased IHD mortality rates. Our results serve as a hypothesis-generating platform for future research in this area.
| S-EPMC10817196 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Disparities in cancer mortality by county-level income have increased. It is unclear whether these widening disparities have affected older and younger adults equally. National death certificate data were utilized to ascertain cancer deaths during 1999-2015. Average annual percent changes in mortality rates and mortality rate ratios (RRs) were estimated by county-level income quintile and age (25-64 vs ≥65 years). Among 25- to 64-year-olds, cancer mortality rates were 30% higher (RR = 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29 to 1.31) in the lowest-vs the highest-income counties in 1999-2001 and 56% higher (RR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.55 to 1.57) in 2013-2015; the disparities among those 65 years and older were smaller but also widened over time (RR1999-2001 = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.05; RR2013-2015 = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.14). Widening disparities occurred across cancer sites. If all counties had the mortality rates of the highest-income counties, 21.5% of cancer deaths among 25- to 64-year-olds and 7.3% of cancer deaths in those 65 years and older would have been avoided in 2015. These results highlight an ongoing need for equity-focused interventions, particularly among younger adults.
| S-EPMC6695317 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The surgical work force distribution at the county level varies widely across the United States, and the impact of differential access on cancer outcomes is unclear. We used urologists as a test case because they are the first care providers for urologic cancers, can easily be identified from available data sources, and are unevenly distributed throughout the country. The goal of this study was to determine the effect of increasing urologist density on local prostate, bladder, and kidney cancer mortality.Using county-level data from the Area Resource File, US Census, National Cancer Institute, and Centers for Disease Control, regression models were built for prostate, bladder, and kidney cancer mortality, controlling for categorized urologist density, county demographics, socioeconomic factors, and preexisting health care infrastructure.For each of the three cancers, there was a statistically significant cancer-specific mortality reduction associated with counties that had more than zero urologists (16% to 22% reduction for prostate cancer, 17% to 20% reduction for bladder cancer, and 8% to 14% reduction for kidney cancer with increasing urologist density) relative to zero urologists. However, increasing density greater than two urologists per 100,000 people had no statistically significant impact on mortality for any of the tumors studied.The presence of a urologist is associated with lower mortality for urologic cancers in that county, but increasing urologist density does not yield further improvements. Therefore, a nuanced and geographically aware policy toward the size and distribution of the future work force is most likely to provide the greatest population-level improvement in cancer mortality outcomes.
| S-EPMC2881728 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundGeographic and neighborhood-level factors, such as poverty and education, have been associated with an increased risk for incident ESKD, likelihood of receiving pre-ESKD care, and likelihood of receiving a transplant. However, few studies have examined whether these same factors are associated with ESKD mortality. In this study, we examined county-level variation in ESKD mortality and identified county-level characteristics associated with this variation.MethodsWe identified 1,515,986 individuals (aged 18-84 years) initiating RRT (dialysis or transplant) between 2010 and 2018 using the United States Renal Data System. Among 2781 counties, we estimated county-level, all-cause, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) among patients with ESKD. We then identified county-level demographic (e.g., percent female), socioeconomic (e.g., percent unemployed), healthcare (e.g., percent without health insurance), and health behavior (e.g., percent current smokers) characteristics associated with ASMR using multivariable hierarchic linear mixed models and quantified the percentage of ASMR variation explained by county-level characteristics.ResultsCounty-level ESKD ASMR ranged from 45 to 1022 per 1000 person-years (PY) (mean, 119 per 1000 PY). ASMRs were highest in counties located in the Tennessee Valley and Appalachia regions, and lowest in counties located in New England, the Pacific Northwest, and Southern California. In fully adjusted models, county-level characteristics significantly associated with higher ESKD mortality included a lower percentage of Black residents (-4.94 per 1000 PY), lower transplant rate (-4.08 per 1000 PY), and higher healthcare expenditures (5.21 per 1000 PY). Overall, county-level characteristics explained 19% of variation in ESKD mortality.ConclusionsCounties with high ESKD-related mortality may benefit from targeted and multilevel interventions that combine knowledge from a growing evidence base on the interplay between individual and community-level factors associated with ESKD mortality.
| S-EPMC9438422 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposePulmonary hypertension (PH) is a heterogenous, often progressive disorder leading to right heart failure and death. Previous analyses show stable PH mortality rates from 1980 to 2001 but increasing from 2001 to 2010 especially among women and non-Hispanic (NH) Black. This study seeks to identify recent trends in PH mortality in the United States from 1999 to 2019.MethodsMortality rates among individuals more than or equal to 15 years of age were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiology Research (WONDER) database. ICD-10 codes were used to identify individuals with PH.ResultsBetween 1999 and 2019, PH was included as a cause on 429,105 recorded deaths. The average age-adjusted PH mortality rate was 7.9 per 100,000 individuals and increased by 1.9% per year. Higher age-adjusted mortality rates were experienced by females and NH Black persons. The crude mortality rate was 105.4 per 100,000 among those decedents 85 or older. From 1999 to 2019, mortality in PH and left heart disease co-occurrence increased at nearly double the annual rate of the overall PH group.ConclusionsDespite therapeutic advances for selected PH subgroups, the overall age-adjusted PH mortality rate increased significantly from 1999 to 2019 and previously reported racial disparities have persisted. These findings emphasize the need for additional study to improve outcomes in PH.
| S-EPMC9709717 | biostudies-literature