Project description:Social institutions often use rewards and penalties to promote cooperation. Providing incentives tends to be costly, so it is important to find effective and efficient policies for the combined use of rewards and penalties. Most studies of cooperation, however, have addressed rewarding and punishing in isolation and have focused on peer-to-peer sanctioning as opposed to institutional sanctioning. Here, we demonstrate that an institutional sanctioning policy we call 'first carrot, then stick' is unexpectedly successful in promoting cooperation. The policy switches the incentive from rewarding to punishing when the frequency of cooperators exceeds a threshold. We find that this policy establishes and recovers full cooperation at lower cost and under a wider range of conditions than either rewards or penalties alone, in both well-mixed and spatial populations. In particular, the spatial dynamics of cooperation make it evident how punishment acts as a 'booster stage' that capitalizes on and amplifies the pro-social effects of rewarding. Together, our results show that the adaptive hybridization of incentives offers the 'best of both worlds' by combining the effectiveness of rewarding in establishing cooperation with the effectiveness of punishing in recovering it, thereby providing a surprisingly inexpensive and widely applicable method of promoting cooperation.
Project description:The present study aims to document the epidemiologic features and outcomes of burn injuries in Southeastern Iran based on International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) guidelines. This retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out at Khatam-Al-Anbiya Hospital. Patient demographics, including burn injury data and outcome data were collected from medical records and analyzed through descriptive and analytical statistics using SPSS software. A total of 3,030 burn patients were included in this study. A total of 55% of the subjects were males. The largest age group included patients aged 15-44 (61%). The majority of burns were caused by flame (70.5%), and most of them were third-degree burns (73%). Mean affected total body surface area (TBSA) was 43.98%±30.75% in all subjects and 80.85%±21.41% in the deceased individuals. Most of the burns were accidental (66.2%), and 37% of them occurred in winter. Mean hospital stay was 4.49±4.67 days (within the range of 1-113 days). A quarter of all patients admitted to the hospital died (24.9%). The number of admitted patients, mean length of stay (LOS), and the mortality rate showed a decreasing trend from 2007 to 2016. In contrast, the total mortality rate was high. The significant predictors of mortality included being female, flame burns, longer LOS, a larger TBSA, burns of higher degrees, as well as burn complications. The documentation of burn data, based on ICD-10 directives, standardizes findings from burn injury analyses and leads to the comparability of data at different national and international levels.
Project description:BackgroundThe phecode system was built upon the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) for phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) using the electronic health record (EHR).ObjectiveThe goal of this paper was to develop and perform an initial evaluation of maps from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) and the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) codes to phecodes.MethodsWe mapped ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM codes to phecodes using a number of methods and resources, such as concept relationships and explicit mappings from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the Unified Medical Language System, Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics, Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine-Clinical Terms, and the National Library of Medicine. We assessed the coverage of the maps in two databases: Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC) using ICD-10-CM and the UK Biobank (UKBB) using ICD-10. We assessed the fidelity of the ICD-10-CM map in comparison to the gold-standard ICD-9-CM phecode map by investigating phenotype reproducibility and conducting a PheWAS.ResultsWe mapped >75% of ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM codes to phecodes. Of the unique codes observed in the UKBB (ICD-10) and VUMC (ICD-10-CM) cohorts, >90% were mapped to phecodes. We observed 70-75% reproducibility for chronic diseases and <10% for an acute disease for phenotypes sourced from the ICD-10-CM phecode map. Using the ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM maps, we conducted a PheWAS with a Lipoprotein(a) genetic variant, rs10455872, which replicated two known genotype-phenotype associations with similar effect sizes: coronary atherosclerosis (ICD-9-CM: P<.001; odds ratio (OR) 1.60 [95% CI 1.43-1.80] vs ICD-10-CM: P<.001; OR 1.60 [95% CI 1.43-1.80]) and chronic ischemic heart disease (ICD-9-CM: P<.001; OR 1.56 [95% CI 1.35-1.79] vs ICD-10-CM: P<.001; OR 1.47 [95% CI 1.22-1.77]).ConclusionsThis study introduces the beta versions of ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM to phecode maps that enable researchers to leverage accumulated ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM data for PheWAS in the EHR.
Project description:New enforcement strategies allow agents to gain the regulator's trust and consequently face a lower audit probability. Prior research suggests that, in order to prevent lower compliance, a reduction in the audit probability (the "carrot") must be compensated with the introduction of a higher penalty for non-compliance (the "stick"). However, such carrot-and-stick strategies reflect neither the concept of trust nor the strategies observed in practice. In response to this, we define trust-based regulation as a strategy that incorporates rules that allow trust to develop, and using a generic (non-cooperative) game of tax compliance, we examine whether trust-based regulation is feasible (i.e., whether, in equilibrium, a reduction in the audit probability, without ever increasing the penalty for non-compliance, does not lead to reduced compliance). The model shows that trust-based regulation is feasible when the agent sufficiently values the future. In line with the concept of trust, this strategy is feasible when the regulator is uncertain about the agent's intentions. Moreover, the model shows that (i) introducing higher penalties makes trust-based regulation less feasible, and (ii) combining trust and forgiveness can lead to a lower audit probability for both trusted and distrusted agents. Policy recommendations often point toward increasing deterrence. This model shows that the opposite can be optimal.
Project description:Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) is the most common cause of death in the Unites States. Despite its major impact on public health, significant challenges exist at the patient, provider, public, and policy levels with respect to raising more widespread awareness and understanding of SCA risks, identifying patients at risk for SCA, addressing barriers to SCA care, and eliminating disparities in SCA care and outcomes. To address many of these challenges, the Duke Center for the Prevention of Sudden Cardiac Death at the Duke Clinical Research Institute (Durham, NC) held a think tank meeting on December 7, 2009, convening experts on this issue from clinical cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology, health policy and economics, the US Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the Agency for Health Care Research and Quality, and device and pharmaceutical manufacturers. The specific goals of the meeting were to examine existing educational tools on SCA for patients, health care providers, and the public and explore ways to enhance and disseminate these tools; to propose a framework for improved identification of patients at risk of SCA; and to review the latest data on disparities in SCA care and explore ways to reduce these disparities. This article summarizes the discussions that occurred at the meeting.
Project description:ObjectivesThe United States transitioned to the tenth version of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) system (ICD-10) for mortality coding in 1999 and to the International Classification of Diseases, Clinical Modification and Procedure Coding System (ICD-10-CM/PCS) on October 1, 2015. The purpose of this study was to conduct a narrative literature review to better understand the impact of the implementation of ICD-10/ICD-10-CM/PCS.Materials and methodsWe searched English-language articles in PubMed, Web of Science, and Business Source Complete and reviewed websites of relevant professional associations, government agencies, research groups, and ICD-10 news aggregators to identify literature on the impact of the ICD-10/ICD-10-CM/PCS transition. We used Google to search for additional gray literature and used handsearching of the references of the most on-target articles to help ensure comprehensiveness.ResultsImpact areas reported in the literature include: productivity and staffing, costs, reimbursement, coding accuracy, mapping between ICD versions, morbidity and mortality surveillance, and patient care. With the exception of morbidity and mortality surveillance, quantitative studies describing the actual impact of the ICD-10/ICD-10-CM/PCS implementation were limited and much of the literature was based on the ICD-10-CM/PCS transition rather than the earlier conversion to ICD-10 for mortality coding.DiscussionThis study revealed several gaps in the literature that limit the ability to draw reliable conclusions about the overall impact, positive or negative, of moving to ICD-10/ICD-10-CM/PCS in the United States.ConclusionThese knowledge gaps present an opportunity for future research and knowledge sharing and will be important to consider when planning for ICD-11.
Project description:The search for novel metabolic biomarkers is intense but has had limited practical outcomes for medicine. Part of the problem is that we lack knowledge of how different comorbidities influence biomarkers' performance. In this study, 49 metabolites were measured by targeted LC/MS protocols in the serum of 1011 volunteers. Their performance as potential biomarkers was evaluated by the area under the curve of receiver operator characteristics (AUC-ROC) for 105 diagnosis codes or code groups from the 10th revision of the international classification of diseases (ICD-10). Additionally, the interferences between diagnosis codes were investigated. The highest AUC-ROC values for individual metabolites and ICD-10 code combinations reached a moderate (0.7) range. Most metabolites that were found to be potential markers remained so independently of the control group composition or comorbidities. The precise value of the AUC-ROC, however, could vary depending on the comorbidities. Moreover, networks of metabolite and disease associations were built in order to map diseases, which may interfere with metabolic biomarker research on other diseases.
Project description:BackgroundThere are currently no validated globally and freely available tools to estimate the modified frailty index (mFI). The widely available and non-proprietary International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) coding could be used as a surrogate for the mFI. We aimed to establish an appropriate set of the ICD-10 codes for comorbidities to be used to estimate the eleven-variable mFI.MethodsA three-stage, web-based, Delphi consensus-building process among a panel of intensivists and geriatricians using iterative rounds of an online survey, was conducted between March and July 2021. The consensus was set a priori at 75% overall agreement. Additionally, we assessed if survey responses differed between intensivists and geriatricians. Finally, we ascertained the level of agreement.ResultsA total of 21 clinicians participated in all 3 Delphi surveys. Most (86%, 18/21) had more than 5-years' experience as specialists. The agreement proportionately increased with every Delphi survey. After the third survey, the panel had reached 75% consensus in 87.5% (112/128) of ICD-10 codes. The initially included 128 ICD-10 variables were narrowed down to 54 at the end of the 3 surveys. The inter-rater agreements between intensivists and geriatricians were moderate for surveys 1 and 3 (κ = 0.728, κ = 0.780) respectively, and strong for survey 2 (κ = 0.811).ConclusionsThis quantitative Delphi survey of a panel of experienced intensivists and geriatricians achieved consensus for appropriate ICD-10 codes to estimate the mFI. Future studies should focus on validating the mFI estimated from these ICD-10 codes.Trial registrationNot applicable.
Project description:ContextIdentifying the seriously ill population is integral to improving the value of health care. Efforts to identify this population using existing data are anchored to a list of severe medical conditions (SMCs) using diagnostic codes. Published approaches have used International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes, which has since been replaced by ICD-10.ObjectivesWe translated SMCs from ICD-9 to ICD-10 using a refined code list. We aimed to test the hypothesis that people identified by ICD-9 or ICD-10 codes would have similar Medicare costs, health care utilization, and mortality.MethodsUsing data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study linked to Medicare claims, we compared samples from periods using ICD-9 (2014) and ICD-10 (2016). We included participants with six-month fee-for-service Medicare data before their interview date who had an SMC identified within that period. We compared the groups' demographic, functional, and medical characteristics and followed up them for six months to compare outcomes.ResultsAmong subjects in the 2016 (ICD-10) sample, 19.9% were hospitalized, 24.6% used the emergency department, 7.2% died, and average Medicare spending totaled $9902.04 over six months of follow-up. We observed no significant differences between the 2014 and 2016 samples (P > 0.05); both samples represent 18% of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries.ConclusionIdentifying the seriously ill population using currently available data requires using ICD-10 to define SMCs. Routine measurement of function, quality of life, and caregiver strain will further enhance the identification process and efficiently target palliative care services and appropriate quality measures.
Project description:Mitigating the negative impacts of declining worldwide forest cover remains a significant socio-ecological challenge, due to the dominant role of human decision-making. Here we use a Markov chain model of land-use dynamics to examine the impact of governance on forest cover in a region. Each land parcel can be either forested or barren (deforested), and landowners decide whether to deforest their parcel according to perceived value (utility). We focus on three governance strategies: yearly incentive for conservation, one-time penalty for deforestation and one-time incentive for reforestation. The incentive and penalty are incorporated into the expected utility of forested land, which decreases the net gain of deforestation. By analyzing the equilibrium and stability of the landscape dynamics, we observe four possible outcomes: a stationary-forested landscape, a stationary-deforested landscape, an unstable landscape fluctuating near the equilibrium, and a cyclic-forested landscape induced by synchronized deforestation. We find that the two incentive-based strategies often result in highly fluctuating forest cover over decadal time scales or longer, and in a few cases, reforestation incentives actually decrease the average forest cover. In contrast, a penalty for deforestation results in the stable persistence of forest cover (generally >30%). The idea that larger conservation incentives will always yield higher and more stable forest cover is not supported in our findings. The decision to deforest is influenced by more than a simple, "rational" cost-benefit analysis: social learning and myopic, stochastic decision-making also have important effects. We conclude that design of incentive programs may need to account for potential counter-productive long-term effects due to behavioural feedbacks.