Dataset Information

Data-driven multiscale modelling and analysis of COVID-19 spatiotemporal evolution using explainable AI.

ABSTRACT: To quantificationally identify the optimal control measures for regulators to best minimize COVID-19's growth (G-rate) and death (D-rate) rates in today's context, this paper develops a top-down multiscale engineering approach which encompasses a series of systematic analyses, namely: (global scale) predictive modelling of G-rate and D-rate due to COVID-19 globally, followed by determining the most effective control factors which can best minimize both parameters over time via explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI) with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method; (continental scale) same predictive forecasting of G-rate and D-rate in all continents, followed by performing explainable SHAP analysis to determine the most effective control factors for the respective continents; and (country scale) clustering the different countries (> 150 in total) into 3 main clusters to identify the universal set of effective control measures. By using the historical period between 2 May 2020 and 1 Oct 2021, the average MAPE scores for forecasting G-rate and D-rate are within 10%, or less on average, at the global and continental scales. Systematically, we have quantificationally demonstrated that the top 3 most effective control measures for regulators to best minimize G-rate universally are COVID-CONTACT-TRACING, PUBLIC-GATHERING-RULES, and COVID-STRINGENCY-INDEX, while the control factors relating to D-rate depend on the modelling scenario.

SUBMITTER: Chew AWZ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8832881 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Data-driven multiscale modelling and analysis of COVID-19 spatiotemporal evolution using explainable AI.

Chew Alvin Wei Ze AWZ Zhang Limao L

Sustainable cities and society 20220211

To quantificationally identify the optimal control measures for regulators to best minimize COVID-19's growth (G-rate) and death (D-rate) rates in today's context, this paper develops a top-down multiscale engineering approach which encompasses a series of systematic analyses, namely: (global scale) predictive modelling of G-rate and D-rate due to COVID-19 globally, followed by determining the most effective control factors which can best minimize both parameters over time via explainable Artifi ...[more]

PMID: 35186668

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Project description:BackgroundAccording to the World Health Organization (WHO), dementia is the seventh leading reason of death among all illnesses and one of the leading causes of disability among the world's elderly people. Day by day the number of Alzheimer's patients is rising. Considering the increasing rate and the dangers, Alzheimer's disease should be diagnosed carefully. Machine learning is a potential technique for Alzheimer's diagnosis but general users do not trust machine learning models due to the black-box nature. Even, some of those models do not provide the best performance because of using only neuroimaging data.ObjectiveTo solve these issues, this paper proposes a novel explainable Alzheimer's disease prediction model using a multimodal dataset. This approach performs a data-level fusion using clinical data, MRI segmentation data, and psychological data. However, currently, there is very little understanding of multimodal five-class classification of Alzheimer's disease.MethodFor predicting five class classifications, 9 most popular Machine Learning models are used. These models are Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Gradient Boosting (GB), Adaptive Boosting (AdaB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Naive Bayes (NB). Among these models RF has scored the highest value. Besides for explainability, SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is used in this research work.Results and conclusionsThe performance evaluation demonstrates that the RF classifier has a 10-fold cross-validation accuracy of 98.81% for predicting Alzheimer's disease, cognitively normal, non-Alzheimer's dementia, uncertain dementia, and others. In addition, the study utilized Explainable Artificial Intelligence based on the SHAP model and analyzed the causes of prediction. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to present this multimodal (Clinical, Psychological, and MRI segmentation data) five-class classification of Alzheimer's disease using Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS-3) dataset. Besides, a novel Alzheimer's patient management architecture is also proposed in this work.

Dataset Information

Data-driven multiscale modelling and analysis of COVID-19 spatiotemporal evolution using explainable AI.

Publications

Data-driven multiscale modelling and analysis of COVID-19 spatiotemporal evolution using explainable AI.

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