Dataset Information

The Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Rate during Pre- and Post-Vaccination Period in Asian Countries.

ABSTRACT: There is little knowledge about how the influence of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduces the COVID-19 infection rate during the period of vaccine rollout. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of NPIs on decreasing the epidemic growth of COVID-19 between before and after the vaccine rollout period among Asian countries. Our ecological study included observations from 30 Asian countries over the 20 weeks of the pre- and post-vaccination period. Data were extracted from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and other open databases. Longitudinal analysis was utilized to evaluate the impacts of public health responses and vaccines. The facial covering policy was the most effective intervention in the pre-vaccination period, followed by border control and testing policies. In the post-vaccination period, restrictions on gatherings and public transport closure both play a key role in reducing the epidemic growth rate. Vaccine coverage of 1-5%, 5-10%, 10-30%, and over 30% of the population was linked with an average reduction of 0.12%, 0.32%, 0.31%, and 0.59%, respectively. Our findings support the evidence that besides the vaccine increasingly contributing to pandemic control, the implementation of NPIs also plays a key role.

SUBMITTER: Huy LD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8834794 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Rate during Pre- and Post-Vaccination Period in Asian Countries.

Huy Le Duc LD Nguyen Nhi Thi Hong NTH Phuc Phan Thanh PT Huang Chung-Chien CC

International journal of environmental research and public health 20220120 3

There is little knowledge about how the influence of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduces the COVID-19 infection rate during the period of vaccine rollout. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of NPIs on decreasing the epidemic growth of COVID-19 between before and after the vaccine rollout period among Asian countries. Our ecological study included observations from 30 Asian countries over the 20 weeks of the pre- and post-vaccination period. Data were extracted from the Oxf ...[more]

PMID: 35162157

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Project description:BackgroundGlobally, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, particularly pre-eclampsia and eclampsia, are the leading cause of maternal and neonatal mortality, and impose substantial burdens on the families of pregnant women, their communities, and healthcare systems. The Community Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) Trial evaluates a package of care applied at both community and primary health centres to reduce maternal and perinatal disabilities and deaths resulting from the failure to identify and manage pre-eclampsia at the community level. Economic evaluation of health interventions can play a pivotal role in priority setting and inform policy decisions for scale-up. At present, there is a paucity of published literature on the methodology of economic evaluation of large, multi-country, community-based interventions in the area of maternal and perinatal health. This study protocol describes the application of methodology for economic evaluation of the CLIP in South Asia and Africa.MethodsA mixed-design approach i.e. cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and qualitative thematic analysis will be used alongside the trial to prospectively evaluate the economic impact of CLIP from a societal perspective. Data on health resource utilization, costs, and pregnancy outcomes will be collected through structured questionnaires embedded into the pregnancy surveillance, cross-sectional survey and budgetary reviews. Qualitative data will be collected through focus groups (FGs) with pregnant women, household male-decision makers, care providers, and district level health decision makers. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio will be calculated for healthcare system and societal perspectives, taking into account the country-specific model inputs (costs and outcome) from the CLIP Trial. Emerging themes from FGs will inform the design of the model, and help to interpret findings of the CEA.DiscussionThe World Health Organization (WHO) strongly recommends cost-effective interventions as a key aspect of achieving Millennium Development Goal (MDG)-5 (i.e. 75 % reduction in maternal mortality from 1990 levels by 2015). To date, most cost-effectiveness studies in this field have focused specifically on the diagnostic and clinical management of pre-eclampsia, yet rarely on community-based interventions in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). This study protocol will be of interest to public health scientists and health economists undertaking community-based trials in the area of maternal and perinatal health, particularly in LMICs.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01911494.

Project description:BackgroundThe dynamics of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are complicated by age-dependent factors, changing levels of infection, and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as the perceived risk declines, necessitating the use of mathematical models. Our aims were to use epidemiological data from the UK together with estimates of vaccine efficacy to predict the possible long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 under the planned vaccine rollout.MethodsIn this study, we used a mathematical model structured by age and UK region, fitted to a range of epidemiological data in the UK, which incorporated the planned rollout of a two-dose vaccination programme (doses 12 weeks apart, protection onset 14 days after vaccination). We assumed default vaccine uptake of 95% in those aged 80 years and older, 85% in those aged 50-79 years, and 75% in those aged 18-49 years, and then varied uptake optimistically and pessimistically. Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic disease was assumed to be 88% on the basis of Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines being administered in the UK, and protection against infection was varied from 0% to 85%. We considered the combined interaction of the UK vaccination programme with multiple potential future relaxations (or removals) of NPIs, to predict the reproduction number (R) and pattern of daily deaths and hospital admissions due to COVID-19 from January, 2021, to January, 2024.FindingsWe estimate that vaccination alone is insufficient to contain the outbreak. In the absence of NPIs, even with our most optimistic assumption that the vaccine will prevent 85% of infections, we estimate R to be 1·58 (95% credible intervals [CI] 1·36-1·84) once all eligible adults have been offered both doses of the vaccine. Under the default uptake scenario, removal of all NPIs once the vaccination programme is complete is predicted to lead to 21 400 deaths (95% CI 1400-55 100) due to COVID-19 for a vaccine that prevents 85% of infections, although this number increases to 96 700 deaths (51 800-173 200) if the vaccine only prevents 60% of infections. Although vaccination substantially reduces total deaths, it only provides partial protection for the individual; we estimate that, for the default uptake scenario and 60% protection against infection, 48·3% (95% CI 48·1-48·5) and 16·0% (15·7-16·3) of deaths will be in individuals who have received one or two doses of the vaccine, respectively.InterpretationFor all vaccination scenarios we investigated, our predictions highlight the risks associated with early or rapid relaxation of NPIs. Although novel vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 offer a potential exit strategy for the pandemic, success is highly contingent on the precise vaccine properties and population uptake, both of which need to be carefully monitored.FundingNational Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, and UK Research and Innovation.

Dataset Information

The Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Rate during Pre- and Post-Vaccination Period in Asian Countries.

Publications

The Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Rate during Pre- and Post-Vaccination Period in Asian Countries.

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