Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-Onset Dementia.

ABSTRACT: We elicit numerical expectations for late-onset dementia and long-term-care (LTC) outcomes in the US Health and Retirement Study. We provide the first empirical evidence on dementia-risk perceptions among dementia-free older Americans and establish important patterns regarding imprecision of subjective probabilities. Our elicitation distinguishes between precise and imprecise probabilities, while accounting for rounding of reports. Imprecise-probability respondents quantify imprecision using probability intervals. Nearly half of respondents hold imprecise dementia and LTC probabilities, while almost a third of precise-probability respondents round their reports. These proportions decrease substantially when LTC expectations are conditioned on hypothetical knowledge of the dementia state. A

SUBMITTER: Giustinelli P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8848333 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature