A COVID-19 vaccination model for Aotearoa New Zealand.

ABSTRACT: We develop a mathematical model to estimate the effect of New Zealand's vaccine rollout on the potential spread and health impacts of COVID-19. The main purpose of this study is to provide a basis for policy advice on border restrictions and control measures in response to outbreaks that may occur during the vaccination roll-out. The model can be used to estimate the theoretical population immunity threshold, which represents a point in the vaccine rollout at which border restrictions and other controls could be removed and only small, occasional outbreaks would take place. We find that, with a basic reproduction number of 6, approximately representing the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, and under baseline vaccine effectiveness assumptions, reaching the population immunity threshold would req

SUBMITTER: Steyn N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8854696 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature