Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics.

ABSTRACT: The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution from Rio de Janeiro, we document a scale-invariant pattern in the size of successive epidemics following DENV4 emergence. Using surveillance data at fine resolution following the emergence of the DENV4 dengue serotype in Rio de Janeiro, we document a pattern in the size of successive epidemics that is invariant to the scale of spatial aggregation. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal trans

SUBMITTER: Romeo-Aznar V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8864019 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature