Comparison of methods for predicting COVID-19-related death in the general population using the OpenSAFELY platform.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Obtaining accurate estimates of the risk of COVID-19-related death in the general population is challenging in the context of changing levels of circulating infection.

Methods

We propose a modelling approach to predict 28-day COVID-19-related death which explicitly accounts for COVID-19 infection prevalence using a series of sub-studies from new landmark times incorporating time-updating proxy measures of COVID-19 infection prevalence. This was compared with an approach ignoring infection prevalence. The target population was adults registered at a general practice in England in March 2020. The outcome was 28-day COVID-19-related death. Predictors included demographic characteristics and comorbidities. Three proxies of local infection prevalence were used: model-b

SUBMITTER: OpenSAFELY Collaborative 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8865947 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature