Probabilistic projections of baseline twenty-first century CO₂ emissions using a simple calibrated integrated assessment model.

ABSTRACT: Probabilistic projections of baseline (with no additional mitigation policies) future carbon emissions are important for sound climate risk assessments. Deep uncertainty surrounds many drivers of projected emissions. Here, we use a simple integrated assessment model, calibrated to century-scale data and expert assessments of baseline emissions, global economic growth, and population growth, to make probabilistic projections of carbon emissions through 2100. Under a variety of assumptions about fossil fuel resource levels and decarbonization rates, our projections largely agree with several emissions projections under current policy conditions. Our global sensitivity analysis identifies several key economic drivers of uncertainty in future emissions and shows important higher-level interact

SUBMITTER: Srikrishnan V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8866549 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature