Aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of the safety, efficacy, and timing of a COVID-19 vaccine.

ABSTRACT: Safe, efficacious vaccines were developed to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic. But in the middle of 2020, vaccine effectiveness, safety, and the timeline for when a vaccine would be approved and distributed to the public was uncertain. To support public health decision making, we solicited trained forecasters and experts in vaccinology and infectious disease to provide monthly probabilistic predictions from July to September of 2020 of the efficacy, safety, timing, and delivery of a COVID-19 vaccine. We found, that despite sparse historical data, a linear pool-a combination of human judgment probabilistic predictions-can quantify the uncertainty in clinical significance and timing of a potential vaccine. The linear pool underestimated how fast a therapy wo

SUBMITTER: McAndrew T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8882426 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature