Predictive models of pregnancy based on data from a preconception cohort study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yland JJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8888990 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Predictive models of pregnancy based on data from a preconception cohort study.
Yland Jennifer J JJ Wang Taiyao T Zad Zahra Z Willis Sydney K SK Wang Tanran R TR Wesselink Amelia K AK Jiang Tammy T Hatch Elizabeth E EE Wise Lauren A LA Paschalidis Ioannis Ch IC
Human reproduction (Oxford, England) 20220301 3
<h4>Study question</h4>Can we derive adequate models to predict the probability of conception among couples actively trying to conceive?<h4>Summary answer</h4>Leveraging data collected from female participants in a North American preconception cohort study, we developed models to predict pregnancy with performance of ∼70% in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).<h4>What is known already</h4>Earlier work has focused primarily on identifying individual risk factors for ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundWe launched the Boston University Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO) to assess the feasibility of carrying out an Internet-based preconception cohort study in the US and Canada.MethodsWe recruited female participants age 21-45 and their male partners through Internet advertisements, word of mouth, and flyers. Female participants were randomised with 50% probability to receive a subscription to FertilityFriend.com (FF), a web-based programme that collects real-time data on menstrual characteristics. We compared recruitment methods within PRESTO, assessed the cost-efficiency of PRESTO relative to its Danish counterpart (Snart-Gravid), and validated retrospectively reported date of last menstrual period (LMP) against the FF data.ResultsAfter 99 weeks of recruitment (2013-15), 2421 women enrolled; 1384 (57%) invited their male partners to participate, of whom 693 (50%) enrolled. Baseline characteristics were balanced across randomisation groups. Cohort retention was similar among those randomised vs. not randomised to FF (84% vs. 81%). At study enrollment, 56%, 22%, and 22% couples had been trying to conceive for < 3, 3-5, and ≥ 6 months, respectively. The cost per subject enrolled was $146 (2013 US$), which was similar to our companion Danish study and half that of a traditional cohort study. Among FF users who conceived, > 97% reported their LMP on the PRESTO questionnaire within 1 day of the LMP recorded via FF.ConclusionsUse of the Internet as a method of recruitment and follow-up in a North American preconception cohort study was feasible and cost-effective.
| S-EPMC4662659 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective:Obesity has become a major, worldwide public health issue and is associated with a greater risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Leptin, a hormone produced by adipocytes, is elevated in individuals with obesity and may mediate the association between obesity and pregnancy outcomes. Though leptin levels during pregnancy have been associated with pregnancy outcomes, less is understood regarding preconception levels. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate associations between preconception leptin levels and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Methods:This was a prospective cohort study nested within a large randomized controlled trial conducted at four medical centres in the United States. A total of 1078 women completed the parent study; this analysis involved women who became pregnant during that study (n = 776). Patients were healthy women, ages 18 to 40, attempting to conceive, with 1 to 2 prior pregnancy losses. Participants were followed for less than or equal to 6 cycles while trying to conceive and throughout pregnancy if they conceived. Preconception leptin concentrations were measured in serum collected at baseline then categorized by tertiles (using the lowest as reference group). Weighted log-binomial regression estimated risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pregnancy loss, preterm delivery (PTD), gestational diabetes (GDM), and hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, adjusting for age, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and body mass index (BMI). Results:The mean (SD) BMI in this cohort was 25.4 ± 6.0. GDM (RR 18.37; 95% CI, 2.39-141.55) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (RR 2.35; 95% CI, 1.20-4.61) risks were higher among women in the high tertile after adjusting for age and WHR. The associated risk persisted when adjusting for BMI for GDM but was attenuated for hypertensive disorders in pregnancy. Leptin levels were not associated with risk of pregnancy loss or PTD. Conclusions:Women with higher baseline preconception leptin levels had a higher likelihood of experiencing some adverse pregnancy outcomes including GDM and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. These findings warrant further evaluation, especially in light of the association between leptin and obesity.
| S-EPMC7156817 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReproductive tract infections can cause serious adverse outcomes for pregnant women such as spontaneous abortion and preterm birth. However, it is unclear whether maternal reproductive tract infection before pregnancy would also be related to any adverse pregnancy outcomes. This study aims to investigate the association of maternal preconception reproductive tract infections with subsequent adverse pregnancy outcomes.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Chongqing Municipality of China between April 2010 and December 2016. A total of 57,586 women (57,708 pregnancies) from all 39 counties of Chongqing who participated in the National Free Preconception Health Examination Project were included. They all took preconception examinations for gonorrhea, chlamydia, trichomoniasis, syphilis, bacterial vaginosis and candidiasis before pregnancy within one year. Primary outcomes included spontaneous abortion (< 28 weeks gestation), preterm birth (< 37 weeks gestation), macrosomia and low birthweight.ResultsOf the 57,708 pregnancies, 2438 (4.22%) had at least one type of reproductive tract infections. Compared with women who were not infected with any reproductive tract infection before pregnancy, women with reproductive tract infections had a higher rate of spontaneous abortion (7.88% vs. 5.62%, p < 0.001). After analyzing by each infection, there were few significant associations between pre-pregnancy infections and adverse outcomes. Preconception syphilis infection was significantly associated with increased odds of spontaneous abortion (aOR = 2.07, 95%CI 1.50-2.85), induced abortion/labour due to medical reasons (aOR = 1.60, 95%CI 1.01-2.54) and preterm birth (aOR = 1.60, 95%CI 1.12-2.30) after adjusting for potential confounders. Preconception trichomoniasis was intended to relate to a higher risk of spontaneous abortion (aOR = 1.65, 95%CI 1.01-2.71), but its impact seemed to be attributed to its co-infection with other RTIs. Women who were chlamydia or bacterial vaginosis positive before pregnancy showed higher odds of macrosomia (aOR = 2.00, 95% CI 1.07-3.74 for chlamydia; aOR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.34 for bacterial vaginosis). Preconception bacterial vaginosis might also be associated with higher risks of very preterm birth (aOR = 2.16, 95%CI 1.23-3.78) and large for gestational age (aOR = 1.36, 95%CI 1.02-1.81).ConclusionsWomen with infections of the genital tract before pregnancy might also have increased risks of subsequent adverse outcomes including spontaneous abortion, preterm birth and macrosomia.
| S-EPMC9208112 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSuboptimal maternal health already from preconception onwards is strongly linked to an increased risk of birth complications. To enable identification of women at risk of birth complications, we aimed to develop a prediction model for birth complications using maternal preconception socio-demographic, lifestyle, medical history and early-pregnancy clinical characteristics in a general population.MethodsIn a population-based prospective cohort study among 8340 women, we obtained information on 33 maternal characteristics at study enrolment in early-pregnancy. These characteristics covered the preconception period and first half of pregnancy (< 21 weeks gestation). Preterm birth was < 37 weeks gestation. Small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) at birth were gestational-age-adjusted birthweight in the lowest or highest decile, respectively. Because of their co-occurrence, preterm birth and SGA were combined into a composite outcome.ResultsThe basic preconception model included easy obtainable maternal characteristics in the preconception period including age, ethnicity, parity, body mass index and smoking. This basic preconception model had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.63 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61 to 0.65) and 0.64 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.66) for preterm birth/SGA and LGA, respectively. Further extension to more complex models by adding maternal socio-demographic, lifestyle, medical history and early-pregnancy clinical characteristics led to small, statistically significant improved models. The full model for prediction of preterm birth/SGA had an AUC 0.66 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.67) with a sensitivity of 22% at a 90% specificity. The full model for prediction of LGA had an AUC of 0.67 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.69) with sensitivity of 28% at a 90% specificity. The developed models had a reasonable level of calibration within highly different socio-economic subsets of our population and predictive performance for various secondary maternal, delivery and neonatal complications was better than for primary outcomes.ConclusionsPrediction of birth complications is limited when using maternal preconception and early-pregnancy characteristics, which can easily be obtained in clinical practice. Further improvement of the developed models and subsequent external validation is needed.
| S-EPMC8886786 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:Promotion of healthy pregnancies has gained high priority in the Netherlands because of the relative unfavourable perinatal outcomes. In response, a nationwide study Healthy Pregnancy 4 All (HP4ALL) has been initiated. One of the substudies within HP4ALL focuses on preconception care (PCC). PCC is an opportunity to detect and eliminate risk factors before conception to optimise health before organogenesis and placentation. The main objectives of the PCC substudy are (1) to assess the effectiveness of a recruitment strategy for the PCC health services and (2) to assess the effectiveness of individual PCC consultations. METHODS/ANALYSIS:Prospective cohort study in neighbourhoods of 14 municipalities with perinatal mortality and morbidity rates exceeding the nation's average. The theoretical framework of the PCC substudy is based on Andersen's model of healthcare utilisation (a model that evaluates the utilisation of healthcare services from a sociological perspective). Women aged 18 up to and including 41 years are targeted for utilisation of the PCC health service by a four armed recruitment strategy. The PCC health service consists of an individual PCC consultation consisting of (1) initial risk assessment and risk management and (2) a follow-up consultation to assess adherence to the management plan. The primary outcomes regarding the effectiveness of consultations is behavioural change regarding folic acid supplementation, smoking cessation, cessation of alcohol consumption and illicit substance use. The primary outcome regarding the effectiveness of the recruitment strategy is the number of women successfully recruited and the outreach in terms of which population is reached in comparison to the approached population. Data collection consists of registration in the database of women that enrol for a visit to the individual PCC consultations (women successfully recruited), and preconsultation and postconsultation measurements among the included study population (by questionnaires, anthropometric measurements and biomarkers). Sample size calculation resulted in a sample size of n=839 women. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:Approval for this study has been obtained from the Medical Ethical Committee of the Erasmus Medical Center of Rotterdam (MEC 2012-425). Results will be published and presented at international conferences.
| S-EPMC4368984 | biostudies-other
Project description:Machine learning and data analytics are being increasingly used for quantitative structure property relation (QSPR) applications in the chemical domain where the traditional Edisonian approach towards knowledge-discovery have not been fruitful. The perception of odorant stimuli is one such application as olfaction is the least understood among all the other senses. In this study, we employ machine learning based algorithms and data analytics to address the efficacy of using a data-driven approach to predict the perceptual attributes of an odorant namely the odorant characters (OC) of "sweet" and "musky". We first analyze a psychophysical dataset containing perceptual ratings of 55 subjects to reveal patterns in the ratings given by subjects. We then use the data to train several machine learning algorithms such as random forest, gradient boosting and support vector machine for prediction of the odor characters and report the structural features correlating well with the odor characters based on the optimal model. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of the data quality on the performance of the models by comparing the semantic descriptors generally associated with a given odorant to its perception by majority of the subjects. The study presents a methodology for developing models for odor perception and provides insights on the perception of odorants by untrained human subjects and the effect of the inherent bias in the perception data on the model performance. The models and methodology developed here could be used for predicting odor characters of new odorants.
| S-EPMC7553929 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFor women who have experienced recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL), it is crucial not only to treat them but also to evaluate the risk of recurrence. The study aimed to develop a risk predictive model to predict the subsequent early pregnancy loss (EPL) in women with RPL based on preconception data.MethodsA prospective, dynamic population cohort study was carried out at the Second Hospital of Lanzhou University. From September 2019 to December 2022, a total of 1050 non-pregnant women with RPL were participated. By December 2023, 605 women had subsequent pregnancy outcomes and were randomly divided into training and validation group by 3:1 ratio. In the training group, univariable screening was performed on RPL patients with subsequent EPL outcome. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression were utilized to select variables, respectively. Subsequent EPL prediction model was constructed using generalize linear model (GLM), gradient boosting machine (GBM), random forest (RF), and deep learning (DP). The variables selected by LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression were then established and compared using the best prediction model. The AUC, calibration curve, and decision curve (DCA) were performed to assess the prediction performances of the best model. The best model was validated using the validation group. Finally, a nomogram was established based on the best predictive features.ResultsIn the training group, the GBM model achieved the best performance with the highest AUC (0.805). The AUC between the variables screened by the LASSO regression (16-variables) and logistic regression (9-variables) models showed no significant difference (AUC: 0.805 vs. 0.777, P = 0.1498). Meanwhile, the 9-variable model displayed a well discrimination performance in the validation group, with an AUC value of 0.781 (95%CI 0.702, 0.843). The DCA showed the model performed well and was feasible for making beneficial clinical decisions. Calibration curves revealed the goodness of fit between the predicted values by the model and the actual values, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 7.427, and P = 0.505.ConclusionsPredicting subsequent EPL in RPL patients using the GBM model has important clinical implications. Future prospective studies are needed to verify the clinical applicability.Trial registrationThis study was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry with the registration number of ChiCTR2000039414 (27/10/2020).
| S-EPMC11218098 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes, and optimization of glycemic control during pregnancy can help mitigate risks associated with diabetes. However, studies seldom focus precisely on maternal blood glucose level prior to pregnancy. We aimed to evaluate the associations between preconception blood fasting plasma glucose (FPG) level and subsequent pregnancy outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study among 6,447,339 women aged 20-49 years old who participated in National Free Pre-Pregnancy Checkups Project and completed pregnancy outcomes follow-up between 2010 and 2016 in China. During the preconception health examination, serum FPG concentration was measured, and self-reported history of DM was collected. Women were classified into three groups (normal FPG group: FPG < 5.6 mmol/L and no self-reported history of DM; impaired fasting glucose [IFG]: FPG 5.6-6.9 mmol/L and no self-reported history of DM; and DM: FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L or self-reported history of DM). The primary outcomes were adverse pregnancy outcomes, including spontaneous abortion, preterm birth (PTB), macrosomia, small for gestational age infant (SGA), birth defect, and perinatal infant death. Logistic regression model was used to calculate odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) after adjusting for confounding variables. The mean age of women was 25.24 years, 91.47% were of Han nationality, and 92.85% were from rural areas. The incidence of DM and IFG was 1.18% (76,297) and 13.15% (847,737), respectively. Only 917 (1.20%) women reported a history of DM (awareness of their DM status), of whom 37.28% (337) had an elevated preconception FPG level (≥ 5.6 mmol/L), regarded as noncontrolled DM. A total of 1,005,568 (15.60%) women had adverse pregnancy outcomes. Compared with women with normal FPG, women with IFG had higher risks of spontaneous abortion (OR 1.08; 95% CI 1.06-1.09; P < 0.001), PTB (1.02; 1.01-1.03; P < 0.001), macrosomia (1.07; 1.06-1.08; P < 0.001), SGA (1.06; 1.02-1.10; P = 0.007), and perinatal infant death (1.08; 1.03-1.12; P < 0.001); the corresponding ORs for women with DM were 1.11 (95% CI 1.07-1.15; P < 0.001), 1.17 (1.14-1.20; P < 0.001), 1.13 (1.09-1.16; P < 0.001), 1.17 (1.04-1.32; P = 0.008), and 1.59 (1.44-1.76; P < 0.001). Women with DM also had a higher risk of birth defect (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.15-1.91; P = 0.002). Among women without self-reported history of DM, there was a positive linear association between FPG levels and spontaneous abortion, PTB, macrosomia, SGA, and perinatal infant death (P for trend <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, 0.001, <0.001). Information about hypoglycemic medication before or during pregnancy was not collected, and we cannot adjust it in the analysis, which could result in underestimation of risks. Data on 2-hour plasma glucose level and HbA1c concentration were not available, and the glycemic control status was evaluated according to FPG value in women with DM. CONCLUSIONS:Women with preconception IFG or DM had higher risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, including spontaneous abortion, PTB, macrosomia, SGA, and perinatal infant death. Preconception glycemic control through appropriate methods is one of the most important aspects of preconception care and should not be ignored by policy makers.
| S-EPMC6771981 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposePregnancy intentions are associated with preconception health behaviors but are understudied among female adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors. Preconception health is critical for survivors because they face unique risks to fertility and pregnancy from late effects of cancer treatments. This study prospectively assessed the effect of pregnancy intention on physical activity (PA) and smoking behaviors among female AYA survivors.MethodsA cohort of 1049 female AYA survivors were recruited between 2013 and 2017. Participants were 18-39 years and had completed primary cancer treatment. Longitudinal mixed effects analysis was conducted on participants who completed at least 2 of 4 questionnaires over 1.5 years. Two measures were used to capture multiple dimensions of pregnancy intention. The pregnancy intention score (PIS) captured wanting and planning dimensions and represented a scaled response of low to high intention. The trying dimension captured urgent intention and ranged from not trying, ambivalent (neither attempting nor avoiding pregnancy), and trying now. Intention change was assessed between each consecutive time points. Final analysis was conducted with multiple imputations.ResultsSurvivors with increased intention measured by trying was associated with increased PA over time (adjusted B [95%CI]: 0.3 [0.01, 0.5]) compared to survivors with no changes or decreased trying intention. PIS was not significantly associated with preconception behaviors. No measure of intention was associated with smoking behavior.ConclusionsIncreasingly urgent pregnancy intention (trying dimension) was associated with higher preconception PA.Implications for cancer survivorsScreening for immediate intentions can identify AYA survivors in need of early preconception health promotion.
| S-EPMC10539193 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the context of global malaria elimination efforts, special attention is being paid to submicroscopic Plasmodium falciparum infections. In pregnant, sub-Saharan African women, such infections are more prevalent than microscopic infections, and are thought to have adverse effects on both mothers' and newborns' health. However, no study has studied the dynamics and determinants of these infections throughout pregnancy. Retard de Croissance Intra-uterin et Paludisme (RECIPAL), a preconception cohort study carried out in Benin between 2014 and 2017, represented a unique opportunity to assess this issue.MethodsWe used data from 273 pregnant Beninese women who were followed-up from preconception to delivery. We studied the dynamics of and factors influencing submicroscopic (and microscopic) P. falciparum infections during the 3 trimesters of pregnancy, using an ordinal logistic mixed model.ResultsThe incidence rate of submicroscopic P. falciparum infections during pregnancy was 12.7 per 100 person-months (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.8-14.9), compared to 6.7 per 100 person-months (95% CI 5.5-8.1) for microscopic infections. The prevalences were highest in the first trimester for both submicroscopic and microscopic infections. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, we found that those of young age and those with a submicroscopic P. falciparum infection prior to pregnancy were at significantly higher risks of submicroscopic and microscopic infections throughout pregnancy, with a more pronounced effect in the first trimester of pregnancy.ConclusionsThe first trimester of pregnancy is a particularly high-risk period for P. falciparum infection during pregnancy, especially for the youngest women. Malaria prevention tools covering the preconception period and early pregnancy are urgently needed to better protect pregnant women and their newborns.
| S-EPMC7312237 | biostudies-literature